It explains the four primary theoretical models for such decisionmaking: the legal model of decisionmaking strictly according to the law, the political model of ideological judicial decisionmaking, the strategic model of adapting decisions to the preferences of the U.S. Supreme Court, and the litigant-driven model, which predicts that strategic decisions of parties drive judicial outcomes. After reviewing the existing literature for each of these models, the Article conducts an empirical study of decisionmaking determinants, using a database that includes thousands of decisions. This study finds that legal and political factors are statistically significant determinants of decisions, with legal factors having the greatest impact. Strategic and litigant-driven factors have no significance. 1. I, like others who seek to understand circuit court decisionmaking, am indebted to the pathbreaking work in the field, J. WOODFORD HOWARD, COURTS OF APPEALS IN THE FEDERAL JUDICIAL SYSTEM (1981). My research builds on this book, with the benefit of considerable intervening research and data now available.
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