Renewable Energy Resources have been identified among the most promising sources of harnessing power for industrial and household consumption but their power generations highly uctuate so building renewable power systems without critical reliability analysis might result in frequent blackouts in the power system. Therefore, in this paper, a robust, effective and ecient design approach is proposed to handle the reliability issues. The study involves a Mathematical modelling strategy of the PV system to estimate the total PV power produced and the Bottom-Up approach for predicting the household load demand. The reliability is defined in terms of Loss of Load Probability. The design methodology was validated with a University Household. The data used for the analysis consists of daily average global solar irradiance and load profiles. The results revealed that throughout the year, November-February is where the system seems to be more reliable. Also, the results indicated that without buck-up systems, the system would experience an average annual power loss of 17.8753% and thus, it is recommended that either solar batteries or the grid are used as backup system to achieve a complete level of reliability.
In the method comparison approach, two measurement errors are observed. The classical regression approach (linear regression) method cannot be used for the analysis because the method may yield biased and inefficient estimates. In view of that, the Deming regression is preferred over the classical regression. The focus of this work is to assess the impact of censored data on the traditional regression, which deletes the censored observations compared to an adapted version of the Deming regression that takes into account the censored data. The study was done based on simulation studies with NLMIXED being used as a tool to analyse the data. Eight different simulation studies were run in this study. Each of the simulation is made up of 100 datasets with 300 observations. Simulation studies suggest that the traditional Deming regression which deletes censored observations gives biased estimates and a low coverage, whereas the adapted Deming regression that takes censoring into account gives estimates that are close to the true value making them unbiased and gives a high coverage. When the analytical error ratio is misspecified, the estimates are as well not reliable and biased.
Fractional-order derivative modeling continues to receive great interest among researchers across the globe. In this study, Tuberculosis-COVID-19 coinfection is studied using Atangana–Baleanu fractional-order derivatives defined in Caputo sense. We confirmed the existence and singularity of the solution and investigated the model’s equilibrium points. Additionally, we examined the model’s stability in terms of the Ulam–Hyers and generalized Ulam–Hyers stability criteria. The basic reproduction number
R
0
was calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. We also looked into the model’s disease-free equilibrium point’s regional stability. Numerical scheme for simulating the fractional-order system with Mittag–Leffler Kernels are presented. Numerical simulations are given to validate the model. Results of the simulation showed a decline in the number of COVID-19 infections within the population when the fractional operator was reduced.
The paper evidenced that Hepatitis B infection is the world's deadliest liver infection and Vaccination is among the principal clinical strategies in fighting it. These have encouraged a lot of researchers to formulate mathematical models to accurately predict the mode of transmission and make deductions for better health decision-making processes. In this paper, an SEIR model is used to model the transmission of the Hepatitis B infection with periodic contact rate and examine the impact of vaccination. The model was validated using estimated data in Ghana and simulated in a MATLAB environment. The results showed that the vaccination rate has a great impact on the transmission mode of the Hepatitis B infection and the periodic contact rate may lead to a chaotic solution which could result in an uncontrolled spreading of the infection. It is concluded that even if the vaccination rate is 70%, the infection rate would reduce to the minimum barest so more newborns must be vaccinated.
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