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Securing Resilient Livelihoods through Early Warning Systems and Adaptive Safety Nets peter la ¨derach, frans schapendonk, paresh shirsath, giriraj amarnath, steven d. prager, sridhar gummadi, berber kramer, ajit govind, and grazia pacillo Highlights • Understanding the climate-security nexus requires framing risks and resilience, which often reflects a negative cycle of fragility, climate vulnerability, and human insecurity. • Climate actions can enhance a society's climate resilience and generate pathways towards improved peace and security. • These actions include early warnings for food security planning, building local capacity to translate early warnings and climate-informed advisories, climatesmart mapping and adaptation planning, safety-net programmes, and risk finance. • Other changes and interventions are also needed to break the cycle between climate and conflict, align climate actions to peace objectives, and thereby contribute to a climate-resilient peace. From Climate Resilience to Climate SecurityAmbitions to increase resilience, transform food systems, and ensure an end to hunger and malnutrition are intrinsically linked with actions to keep countries, regions, and communities safe. To end dependence on humanitarian assistance for 40 million rural dwellers by 2030 and realign US$5 billion per year for adaptive safety nets, it is critical to embrace a climate-security lens, and in so doing ensure that climate action is aligned with conflict-prevention and peacebuilding objectives (Steiner et al., 2020).Conceptualising the climate-security nexus requires framing risks and resilience. Such framing reflects a negative cycle of fragility, climate vulnerability, and human insecurity, all of which may worsen the risk of violent conflict. In this context, climate change is conventionally framed as a risk multiplier, exacerbating 63

marieke veeger, joost vervoort, and george wamukoya Highlights• Climate change and food security are 'messy' policy issues; policies need to be effectively shaped and fit for purpose across different scales, geographic areas, and sectors. • Policy implementation necessitates coordination across multiple perspectives towards a common goal; an anticipatory governance approach can enable this. • Working against the status quo is not an easy task but can be achieved through truly engaged and inclusive stakeholder processes. • Redistribution of power entails employing a gendered, socially inclusive lens in the development of food system transformation policies. • Establishing an enabling policy environment for transforming food systems requires diverse approaches and multiple perspectives. • Appropriate facilitation and coordination of multi-stakeholder engagements is key to clear communication between participants and to support learning.