Flood-risk assessments are an objective and quantitative basis for implementing harmonized flood mitigation policies at the basin scale. However, the generated results are subject to different sources of uncertainty arising from underlying assumptions, data availability and the random nature of the phenomenon. These sources of uncertainty are likely to bias conclusions because they are irregularly distributed in space. Therefore, this paper addresses the question of the influence of local features on the expected annual damage in different municipalities. Based on results generated in the frame of a transnational flood-risk-assessment project for the river Meuse (Western Europe) taking climate change into account, the paper presents an analysis of the relative contributions of different sources of uncertainty within one single administrative region (the Walloon region in Belgium, i.e. a river reach of approximately 150 km). The main sources of uncertainty are not only found to vary both from one municipality to the other and in time, but also to induce opposite effects on the computed damage. Nevertheless, practical conclusions for policy-makers can still be drawn.

A fly ash heap collapse occurred in Jupille (Liege, Belgium) in 1961. The subsequent flow of fly ash reached a surprisingly long runout and had catastrophic consequences. Its unprecedented degree of fluidization attracted scientific attention. As drillings and direct observations revealed no water-saturated zone at the base of the deposits, scientists assumed an air-fluidization mechanism, which appeared consistent with the properties of the material. In this paper, the air-fluidization assumption is tested based on two-dimensional numerical simulations. The numerical model has been developed so as to focus on the most prominent processes governing the flow, with parameters constrained by their physical interpretation. Results are compared to accurate field observations and are presented for different stages in the model enhancement, so as to provide a base for a discussion of the relative influence of pore pressure dissipation and pore pressure generation. These results show that the apparently high diffusion coefficient that characterizes the dissipation of air pore pressures is in fact sufficiently low for an important degree of fluidization to be maintained during a flow of hundreds of meters.

In this case study, we study the generation of warning waves with prescribed characteristics in a mountain stream. We determine which dam release will generate the desired warning wave. We solve this inverse problem following a two-model approach.An analytical kinematic model is used for a preliminary design of the dam release and a detailed two-dimensional (2D) fully dynamic model is used to converge to the final solution. Although the presented case study is far from an idealized academic case, the analytical model performs well and, beyond its role for preliminary design, turns out to be of prime interest for both understanding and discussing the results of the detailed 2D ManuscriptClick here to download Manuscript Manuscript.docx model. The complex interactions between the release hydrograph, the geometry of the river and the friction formula are brought to light by the analytical model, which highlights the complementarity of both models and the usefulness of such a two-model approach.

The discharge coefficient of an ogee crest is a function of the ratio of the effective head to the design head. The purpose of the present study is to derive a theoretical model of this relation, which does not depend on empirical coefficients and whose predictions over a wide range of head ratios are accurate enough for practical use. The developments consider unsubmerged ogee crests without approach flow or lateral contraction effects, heads large enough to enable surface tensions to be neglected, and heads small enough to avoid flow separation. The method is based on potential flow theory, depth integration in a curvilinear reference frame, and critical flow theory. The characteristics of the crest shape are defined by the trajectory of a free jet passing over the crest at the design head. The dimensionless equations show that the position of the critical section is not at the apex of the crest. Nevertheless, they also suggest an approximate equation at the apex of the crest from which the discharge coefficient is derived, together with the local water depth, velocity, and pressure distribution. The results compare well with experimental data for head ratios between 0 and 5, which validates the underlying assumptions of the theoretical model.

A simplified model for the prediction of the steady-state outflow through a breach in an inland dike is presented. It consists in the application of the mass and momentum conservation principles to a macroscopic control volume. A proper definition of the shape of the control volume enables to take the main characteristics of the flow into account and thus to compensate for the extreme simplification of the spatial representation of the model. At the breach, a relation derived from the shallow-water equations is used to determine the direction of the flow. Developments have been guided by numerical simulations and results have been compared to experimental data. Both the accuracy and the domain of validity of the simplified model are found satisfactory.