To predict the service life of clutch sleeve, major reasons for the change of clearance between the clutch sleeve and shell in service period are analysed. A mathematical model of the clearance is established considering abrasion of the step outside sleeve caused by friction. To determine the size of abrasion, a micro‐convex body model for the friction surface is built. Based on surface fatigue abrasion theory, an abrasion model is established. A life model is established based on the entire abrasion of the sleeve. Fatigue life of sleeve is predicted using the model based on actual surface morphology parameters of the enterprise products. Major factors affecting the abrasion speed are discussed and determined after the prediction result is analysed.

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To predict the life of clutch friction plate, friction characteristics of the friction plate and the steel sheet assembly are analyzed in the full life cycle. A contact model of friction surface is built based on micro-convex body model. Wear mathematical models of friction plate are established respectively based on the contact model and sliding work model. The wear results of the two models are compared and analyzed. The effect of temperature on wear is considered. Fatigue life of the friction plate is predicted by wear mathematical model according to the actual working conditions. The accuracy of the contact model and the influence degree of temperature on the wear are determined through comparative analysis of each prediction result.