A B S T R A C T The impact of assimilating GPS zenith total delays (ZTD) in the convective scale model AROME is assessed over a 1-month period in summer 2013. The experimental set-up is similar to the current operational usage at Me´te´o-France where the observing system has been expanded in July 2013 in a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme with a 3-hour cycling. Three experiments are performed. In a baseline experiment the GPS ZTD provided through the E-GVAP programme are withdrawn from the observing system (NOGPS). In a second experiment, GPS ZTD from E-GVAP are included in the observing system, representing the operational configuration at Me´te´o-France (EGVAP). The last experiment is similar to EGVAP but new ZTD observations processed by the University of Luxembourg are also assimilated on top of all other observations (UL01). In the first stage, it has been verified through a systematic comparison with model counterparts that the quality of ZTD data processed by the University of Luxembourg is similar to the one provided by other analysis centres from the E-GVAP programme. After a number of quality controls, it has been possible to assimilate around 90 additional observations on top of around 600 stations from E-GVAP every 3 hours. Despite the small fraction of observations assimilated in AROME that ZTD represent ( B2%), it is shown that they systematically improve the atmospheric humidity short-range forecasts by a comparison with other observing systems informative about water vapour (radiosoundings, satellite radiances, surface networks) even though it is by small amounts. When examining objective precipitation scores over France, the improvement brought by the UL01 stations on top of E-GVAP is systematic for all daily precipitation thresholds. Examination of several case studies reveals the ability of the ZTD observations to modify the intensity and location of precipitating areas in accordance with previous studies. The addition of ZTD from UL01 is also found to be beneficial, by improving rainfall patterns. Planned improvements to the AROME forecasting and assimilation systems with higher horizontal resolution and hourly cycling of 3D-Var assimilation will be of benefit to ZTD observations.
The continuous evolution of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) meteorology has led to an increased use of associated observations for operational modern low-latency numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, which assimilate GNSS-derived zenith total delay (ZTD) estimates. The development of NWP models with faster assimilation cycles, e.g., 1-h assimilation cycle in the rapid update cycle NWP model, has increased the interest of the meteorological community toward sub-hour ZTD estimates. The suitability of real-time ZTD estimates obtained from three different precise point positioning software packages has been assessed by comparing them with the state-of-the-art IGS final troposphere product as well as collocated radiosonde (RS) observations. The ZTD estimates obtained by BNC2.7 show a mean bias of 0.21 cm, and those obtained by the G-Nut/Tefnut software library show a mean bias of 1.09 cm to the IGS final troposphere product. In comparison with the RS-based ZTD, the BNC2.7 solutions show mean biases between 1 and 2 cm, whereas the G-Nut/Tefnut solutions show mean biases between 2 and 3 cm with the RS-based ZTD, and the ambiguity float and ambiguity fixed solutions obtained by PPP-Wizard have mean biases between 6 and 7 cm with the references. The large biases in the time series from PPP-Wizard are due to the fact that this software has been developed for kinematic applications and hence does not apply receiver antenna eccentricity and phase center offset (PCO) corrections on the observations. Application of the eccentricity and PCO corrections to the a priori coordinates has resulted in a 66 % reduction of bias in the PPP-Wizard solutions. The biases are found to be stable over the whole period of the comparison, which are criteria (rather than the magnitude of the bias) for the suitability of ZTD estimates for use in NWP nowcasting. A millimeter-level impact on the ZTD estimates has also been observed in relation to ambiguity resolution. As a result of a comparison with the established user requirements for NWP nowcasting, it was found that both the G-Nut/Tefnut solutions and one of the BNC2.7 solutions meet the threshold requirements, whereas one of the BNC2.7 solution and both the PPPWizard solutions currently exceed this threshold.
BackgroundPeople of South Asian-origin are responsible for more than three-quarters of all the smokeless tobacco (SLT) consumption worldwide; yet there is little evidence on the effect of SLT cessation interventions in this population. South Asians use highly addictive and hazardous SLT products that have a strong socio-cultural dimension. We designed a bespoke behaviour change intervention (BCI) to support South Asians in quitting SLT and then evaluated its feasibility in Pakistan and in the UK.MethodsWe conducted two literature reviews to identify determinants of SLT use among South Asians and behaviour change techniques (BCTs) likely to modify these, respectively. Iterative consensus development workshops helped in selecting potent BCTs for BCI and designing activities and materials to deliver these. We piloted the BCI in 32 SLT users. All BCI sessions were audiotaped and analysed for adherence to intervention content and the quality of interaction (fidelity index). In-depth interviews with16 participants and five advisors assessed acceptability and feasibility of delivering the BCI, respectively. Quit success was assessed at 6 months by saliva/urine cotinine.ResultsThe BCI included 23 activities and an interactive pictorial resource that supported these. Activities included raising awareness of the harms of SLT use and benefits of quitting, boosting clients’ motivation and self-efficacy, and developing strategies to manage their triggers, withdrawal symptoms, and relapse should that occur. Betel quid and Guthka were the common forms of SLT used. Pakistani clients were more SLT dependent than those in the UK. Out of 32, four participants had undetectable cotinine at 6 months. Fidelity scores for each site varied between 11.2 and 42.6 for adherence to content – maximum score achievable 44; and between 1.4 and 14 for the quality of interaction - maximum score achievable was 14. Interviews with advisors highlighted the need for additional training on BCTs, integrating nicotine replacement and reducing duration of the pre-quit session. Clients were receptive to health messages but most reported SLT reduction rather than complete cessation.ConclusionWe developed a theory-based BCI that was also acceptable and feasible to deliver with moderate fidelity scores. It now needs to be evaluated in an effectiveness trial.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-016-3177-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Long series of Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) obtained as part of a homogeneous re-processing of Global Positioning System solutions constitute a reliable set of data to be assimilated into climate models. The correct stochastic properties, i.e. the noise model of these data, have to be identified to assess the real value of ZWD trend uncertainties since assuming an inappropriate noise model may lead to over-or underestimated error bounds leading to statistically insignificant trends. We present the ZWD time series for 1995-2017 for 120 selected globally distributed stations. The deterministic model in the form of a trend and significant seasonal signals were removed prior to the noise analysis. We examined different stochastic models and compared them to widely assumed white noise (WN). A combination of the autoregressive process of first-order plus WN (AR(1) + WN) was proven to be the preferred stochastic representation of the ZWD time series over the generally assumed white-noise-only approach. We found that for 103 out of 120 considered stations, the AR(1) process contributed to the AR(1) + WN model in more than 50% with noise amplitudes between 9 and 68 mm. As soon as the AR(1) + WN model was employed, 43 trend estimates became statistically insignificant, compared to 5 insignificant trend estimates for a white-noise-only model. We also found that the ZWD trend uncertainty may be underestimated by 5-14 times with median value of 8 using the white-noise-only assumption. Therefore, we recommend that AR(1) + WN model is employed before tropospheric trends are to be determined with the greatest reliability.
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