In this paper, we estimate the effects of Bolsa Familia programme (BFP) on migration flows among municipalities from 2008 to 2010. BFP is a Brazilian cash transfer programme to low‐income families. We consider the aggregated origin–destination flows coming from a spatial dependent discrete choice model, and focus on interest variables related to the distribution of resources and supervision of the programme. We discuss possible lying mechanisms relating the interest variables and individual migration decisions. Each mechanism differs according to the individual status, the beneficiary of the programme or not, income profile, specific characteristics of its home municipality and potential destinations. Among our results, the control variables appear to agree with the main findings of migration literature. Moreover, the programme management was revealed relevant to the current and potential beneficiary locational choices, especially regarding the distribution of resources.

O efeito das transferências de renda nos fluxos migratórios entre os municípios brasileiros de 2008 a 2010The effect of cash transfers on migration flows between brazilian municipalities from 2008 to 2010 To develop our analysis, the individuals are separated in six per capita family income profiles. In face of the PBF aim, we focus on the first four profiles. Then, some mechanisms that can influence the decision to migrate or to stay in the same municipality are suggested. Each mechanism differs acording to the individual status, of being a beneficiary of the program or not, acording to his income profile, and also acording to the analysed feature of the program being about his own municipality, or of another one, for where he can migrate. Gabriel Lyrio de OliveiraAs robustness, we estimated a Logit model of the individual probability of having migrated, given his caracteristics, among which being beneficiary, and given the characteristics of his origin municipality, among which the PBF management features.The results seem to replicate the main finds of migration literature, and point to the relevance of being concerned with the management of the program and the release of resources, because of its influences on individual location decision.

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