DNA barcoding helps to identify species, especially when identification is based on parts of organisms or life stages such as seeds, pollen, wood, roots or juveniles. However, the implementation of this approach strongly depends on the existence of complete reference libraries of DNA sequences. If such a library is incomplete, DNA-based identification will be inefficient. Here, we assess if DNA barcoding can already be implemented in species-rich tropical regions. We focus on the tree flora of São Paulo state, Brazil, which contains more than 2000 tree species. Using new DNA sequence data and carefully assembled GenBank accessions, we assembled 12,113 sequences from ten different regions. The ITS, rbcL, psbA-trnH, matK and trnL regions were better represented within the available sequences for São Paulo tree flora. Currently, only 58% of the São Paulo tree flora currently have at least one barcoding sequence available. However, these species represent on average 89% of the trees in São Paulo state forests. Therefore, conservation-oriented and ecological studies can already benefit from DNA barcoding to obtain more accurate species identifications. We present which taxa remain underrepresented for the São Paulo tree flora and discuss the implications of this result for other species-rich tropical regions.

Historically, the expansion of soy plantations has been a major driver of land-use/cover change (LUCC) in Brazil. While a series of recent public actions and supply-chain commitments reportedly curbed the replacement of forests by soy, the expansion of the agricultural commodity still poses a considerable threat to the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Identification of areas under high risk of soy expansion is thus paramount to assist conservation efforts in the region. We mapped the areas suitable for undergoing transition to soy plantations in the Legal Amazon with a machine-learning approach adopted from the ecological modeling literature. Simulated soy expansion for the year 2014 exhibited favorable validation scores compared to other LUCC models. We then used our model to simulate how potential future infrastructure improvements would affect the 2014 probabilities of soy occurrence in the region. In addition to the 2.3 Mha of planted soy in the Legal Amazon in 2014, our model identified another 14.7 Mha with high probability of soy conversion in the region given the infrastructure conditions at that time. Out of those, pastures and forests represented 9.8 and 0.4 Mha, respectively. Under the new infrastructure scenarios simulated, the Legal Amazonian area under high risk of soy conversion increased by up to 2.1 Mha (14.6%). These changes led to up to 11.4 and 51.4% increases in the high-risk of conversion areas of pastures and forests, respectively. If conversion occurs in the identified high-risk areas, at least 4.8 Pg of CO2 could be released into the atmosphere, a value that represents 10 times the total CO2 emissions of Brazil in 2014. Our results highlight the importance of targeting conservation policies and enforcement actions, including the Soy Moratorium, to mitigate future forest cover loss associated with infrastructure improvements in the region.

Our study analyzes potential agro-industrial soybean expansion dynamics and is the first to project soybean expansion Paraguayan Chaco. This biodiverse region, home to the greatest diversity of indigenous groups in Paraguay, has recently seen some of the world’s highest deforestation rates, losing 3.4 Mha of forestland between 2001 and 2014. Soy, a globally traded commodity crop and Paraguay’s largest export product, recently arrived in the area and may exacerbate the high deforestation rates currently attributed to pastureland expansion. We combine extensive field, trade, and satellite data, to analyze the context, and push-pull factors that are driving frontier expansion dynamics, and assess the potential impacts of soybean-based land use change using geo-located accounts of current soybean production sites. Our analysis finds that roughly 742,000 ha in the Paraguayan Chaco are suitable for soybean frontier expansion with an additional 940,000 ha moderately suitable for expansion. We identify the main drivers of soybean expansion in the region as agricultural technology and land price appreciation. However, infrastructure investments are set to further drive soybean expansion dynamics and connect the region via navigable rivers and roads with access to ports on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans as part of the multi-national Corredor-Bioceánico “bi-oceanic corridor” road project. The continued rapid development of this fragile landscape could transform the Paraguayan Chaco into a major South American logistics hub for soybean and other agricultural production. Without appropriate governance systems in place, this development could lead to irreversible large-scale damage to the socio-environmental systems, similar to boom dynamics seen in other South American frontiers.

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Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) promise to deliver performance-based, cost-effective climate change mitigation. 15 years after REDD+’s conception, we analyse the rigorous counterfactual-based ev-idence for environmental and welfare effects from national and subnational initiatives, along a REDD+ Theory of Change. Using machine-learning tools for literature review, we compare 32 quantitative studies including 26 primary forest-related and 12 socioeconomic effect sizes. Average environmental impacts were positively significant yet moderately sized, comparable to impacts from other conservation tools, and mostly impermanent over time. Socioeconomic impacts were welfare-neutral to slightly positive, especially at outcome stage (e.g. rising incomes). Moderator analysis shows that REDD+ environmental additionality was likely restricted by project proponents’ ‘high-and-far’ spatial targeting of low-threat areas (adverse selection bias). Disappointingly scarce funding flows from carbon markets and ill-enforced condi-tionality probably also limited impacts. Hence, important policy and implementation lessons emerge for boosting effec-tiveness in the current global transition towards larger-scale, jurisdictional REDD+ action.