Tree mortality is a key factor influencing forest functions and dynamics, but our understanding of the mechanisms leading to mortality and the associated changes in tree growth rates are still limited. We compiled a new pan-continental tree-ring width database from sites where both dead and living trees were sampled (2970 dead and 4224 living trees from 190 sites, including 36 species), and compared early and recent growth rates between trees that died and those that survived a given mortality event. We observed a decrease in radial growth before death in ca. 84% of the mortality events. The extent and duration of these reductions were highly variable (1-100 years in 96% of events) due to the complex interactions among study species and the source(s) of mortality. Strong and long-lasting declines were found for gymnosperms, shade- and drought-tolerant species, and trees that died from competition. Angiosperms and trees that died due to biotic attacks (especially bark-beetles) typically showed relatively small and short-term growth reductions. Our analysis did not highlight any universal trade-off between early growth and tree longevity within a species, although this result may also reflect high variability in sampling design among sites. The intersite and interspecific variability in growth patterns before mortality provides valuable information on the nature of the mortality process, which is consistent with our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to mortality. Abrupt changes in growth immediately before death can be associated with generalized hydraulic failure and/or bark-beetle attack, while long-term decrease in growth may be associated with a gradual decline in hydraulic performance coupled with depletion in carbon reserves. Our results imply that growth-based mortality algorithms may be a powerful tool for predicting gymnosperm mortality induced by chronic stress, but not necessarily so for angiosperms and in case of intense drought or bark-beetle outbreaks.

Summary1. Some disturbances can drive ecological systems to abrupt shifts between alternative stages (tipping points) when critical transitions occur. Drought-induced tree death can be considered as a nonlinear shift in tree vigour and growth. However, at what point do trees become predisposed to drought-related dieback and which factors determine this (tipping) point? We investigated these questions by characterizing the responses of three tree species, silver fir (Abies alba), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis), to a severe drought event. 2. We compared basal area increment (BAI) trends and responses to climate and drought in declining (very defoliated and dying) vs. non-declining (slightly or not defoliated) trees by using generalized additive mixed models. Defoliation, BAI and sapwood production were related to functional proxies of tree vigour measured at the onset and end of the drought (non-structural carbohydrate concentrations, needle N content and C isotopic discrimination, presence of wood-inhabiting fungi). We evaluated whether early warning signals (increases in synchronicity among trees or in autocorrelation and standard deviation) could be extracted from the BAI series prior to tree death. 3. Declining silver fir and Scots pine trees showed less growth than non-declining trees one to three decades, respectively, before the drought event, whereas Aleppo pines showed growth decline irrespective of tree defoliation. At the end of the drought period, all species showed increased defoliation and a related reduction in the concentration of sapwood soluble sugars. Defoliation was constrained by the BAI of the previous 5 years and sapwood production. No specific wood-inhabiting fungi were found in post-drought declining trees apart from blue-stain fungi, which extensively affected damaged Scots pines. Declining silver firs showed increases in BAI autocorrelation and variability prior to tree death. 4. Synthesis. Early warning signals of drought-triggered mortality seem to be species specific and reflect how different tree species cope with drought stress. Highly correlated declining growth patterns during drought can serve as a signal in silver fir, whereas changes in the content of sapwood soluble sugars are suitable vigour proxies for Scots and Aleppo pines. Longer growth and defoliation series, additional vigour parameters and multi-species comparisons are required to understand and predict drought-induced tree death.

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.

Severe droughts have the potential to reduce forest productivity and trigger tree mortality. Most trees face several drought events during their life and therefore resilience to dry conditions may be crucial to long-term survival. We assessed how growth resilience to severe droughts, including its components resistance and recovery, is related to the ability to survive future droughts by using a tree-ring database of surviving and now-dead trees from 118 sites (22 species, >3,500 trees). We found that, across the variety of regions and species sampled, trees that died during water shortages were less resilient to previous non-lethal droughts, relative to coexisting surviving trees of the same species. In angiosperms, drought-related mortality risk is associated with lower resistance (low capacity to reduce impact of the initial drought), while it is related to reduced recovery (low capacity to attain pre-drought growth rates) in gymnosperms. The different resilience strategies in these two taxonomic groups open new avenues to improve our understanding and prediction of drought-induced mortality.

Hydraulic impairment due to xylem embolism and carbon starvation are the two proposed mechanisms explaining drought-induced forest dieback and tree death. Here, we evaluate the relative role played by these two mechanisms in the long-term by quantifying wood-anatomical traits (tracheid size and area of parenchyma rays) and estimating the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) from carbon isotopic discrimination. We selected silver fir and Scots pine stands in NE Spain with ongoing dieback processes and compared trees showing contrasting vigour (declining vs nondeclining trees). In both species earlywood tracheids in declining trees showed smaller lumen area with thicker cell wall, inducing a lower theoretical hydraulic conductivity. Parenchyma ray area was similar between the two vigour classes. Wet spring and summer conditions promoted the formation of larger lumen areas, particularly in the case of nondeclining trees. Declining silver firs presented a lower iWUE than conspecific nondeclining trees, but the reverse pattern was observed in Scots pine. The described patterns in wood anatomical traits and iWUE are coherent with a long-lasting deterioration of the hydraulic system in declining trees prior to their dieback. Retrospective quantifications of lumen area permit to forecast dieback in declining trees 2-5 decades before growth decline started. Wood anatomical traits provide a robust tool to reconstruct the long-term capacity of trees to withstand drought-induced dieback.