The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are recognized as a common surgical complication, occurring in about 2%-5% of all surgical procedures. For this reason, it is the second most common nosocomial infection, representing the 19.6% of all infections observed in hospitalized patients and 38% of those observed among surgical patients. Among SSIs prevention strategies, surveillance has been proved to be very incisive. The most recent surveillance study carried out at a national level in Italy is SNICh protocol (National Surveillance System of Surgical Site Infections), which analyses data received from 127 Italian hospitals, from the 2009 to 2011 and the entire 2013. The only application of a surveillance strategy, observing the recommended prophylaxis protocols, brought to a reduction of SSIs: their incidence has been shown to be comparable to European or American one. Furthermore, recent studies have brought strong evidence that the development of new devices, such as dressings impregnated with silver nanoparticles or triclosan-coated sutures, is strongly connected with the reduction of incidence of SSIs. In conclusion, if common preventive techniques were applied to all surgical procedures performed in the country, about 14,000 SSIs per year could be avoided with a possible savings after three years between 50 million and EUR 175 million euro.

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We suggest to perform in every patients undergone to pancreatic surgery an intraoperative ultrasound exam, to detect unresecable and unpredicted lesions.

Résumé Le présent article analyse l’efficience du marché des changes. L’article reconsidère la définition originelle de l’efficience au sens de Fama (1965) en mettant en lumière les différentes contradictions internes de cette définition. Partant de là, trois définitions de l’efficience sont avancées : l’efficience fondamentale, l’efficience macroéconomique et l’efficience spéculative. À chaque forme d’efficience est associée un ensemble de tests empiriques. Les résultats des tests suggèrent l’existence de trois formes d’efficience sur le marché des changes, fonctions de l’horizon considéré. Le marché des changes est ainsi caractérisé par l’inefficience pure à court terme (entre 1 mois et 1 an), l’efficience spéculative à moyen terme (entre 1 an et 2 ans) et l’efficience macro-économique pure à long terme (à partir de 5 ans) ; cette dernière forme d’efficience étant soumise à quelques réserves. L’efficience fondamentale, ou efficience au sens de Fama, est rejetée quel que soit l’horizon considéré. La dernière partie explique les résultats obtenus à partir d’un modèle qui relâche les hypothèses d’anticipations rationnelles et d’efficience, au profit de l’hypothèse d’agents hétérogènes.