The growing concentration of population and the related increase in human activities in coastal areas require numerical simulations to analyze the effects of flooding events that might occur in susceptible coastal areas in order to determine effective coastal management practices and safety measures to safeguard the inhabited coastal areas. The reliability of the analysis is dependent on the correct evaluation of key inputs such as return period of flooding events, vulnerability of exposed assets, and other risk factors (e.g., spatial distribution of elements at risk, their economic value, etc.). This paper defines a methodology to assess the effects of flooding events associated with basin run-off and storm surge in coastal areas. The assessment aims at quantifying in economic terms (e.g., loss of assets) the risk of coastal areas subject to flooding events. The methodology proposed in this paper was implemented to determine the areas subject to inundation on a coastal area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instability and coastal inundation. A two-dimensional hydraulic model was adopted to simulate storm surges generated by severe sea storms coupled with intense rainfalls in order to determine the areas subject to inundation in the low-land area along the Adriatic coast object of this study. In conclusion, the economic risk corresponding to four different flooding scenarios was assessed by correlating the exceedance probability of each flooding scenario with the potential economic losses that might be realized in the inundated areas. The results of the assessment can inform decision-makers responsible for the deployment of risk mitigation measures.

Abstract:Estimating economic losses caused on buildings and other civil engineering works due to flooding events is often a difficult task. The accuracy of the estimate is affected by the availability of detailed data regarding the return period of the flooding event, vulnerability of exposed assets, and type of economy run in the affected area. This paper aims to provide a quantitative methodology for the assessment of economic losses associated with flood scenarios. The proposed methodology was performed for an urban area in Southern Italy prone to hydrogeological instabilities. At first, the main physical characteristics of the area such as rainfall, land use, permeability, roughness, and slopes of the area under investigation were estimated in order to obtain input for flooding simulations. Afterwards, the analysis focused on the spatial variability incidence of the rainfall parameters in flood events. The hydraulic modeling provided different flood hazard scenarios. The risk curve obtained by plotting economic consequences vs. the return period for each hazard scenario can be a useful tool for local authorities to identify adequate risk mitigation measures and therefore prioritize the economic resources necessary for the implementation of such mitigation measures.