In this study, we consider data envelopment analysis for comparison between thermal energy plants which are natural gas based and coal based power plants. Results of this study will give a roadmap to decision makers in selecting type of thermal plant they will construct. Also public and private energy supply sources are compared based on their performances. We not only make a solely comparison but also make a ranking of the power plants considered by using goal programming technique.
Purpose -Accurate forecasting of intermittent demand is very important since parts with intermittent demand characteristics are very common. The purpose of this paper is to bring an easier way of handling the hard work of intermittent demand forecasting by using commonly used Excel spreadsheet and also performing parameter optimization. Design/methodology/approach -Smoothing parameters of the forecasting methods are optimized dynamically by Excel Solver in order to achieve the best performance. Application is done on real data of Turkish Airlines' spare parts comprising 262 weekly periods from January 2009 to December 2013. The data set are composed of 500 stock-keeping units, so there are 131,000 data points in total. Findings -From the results of implementation, it is shown that using the optimum parameter values yields better performance for each of the methods. Research limitations/implications -Although it is an intensive study, this research has some limitations. Since only real data are considered, this research is limited to the aviation industry. Practical implications -This study guides market players by explaining the features of intermittent demand. With the help of the study, decision makers dealing with intermittent demand are capable of applying specialized intermittent demand forecasting methods. Originality/value -The study brings simplicity to intermittent demand forecasting work by using commonly used spreadsheet software. The study is valuable for giving insights to market players dealing with items having intermittent demand characteristics, and it is one of the first study which is optimizing the smoothing parameters of the forecasting methods by using spreadsheet in the area of intermittent demand forecasting.
Risk is an integrated part of the banking functions, which cannot be eliminated completely but it can be reduced by employing appropriate techniques. Credit processing is one of the core functions in the banking system, and its performance is closely related to management of the risks. The aim of this article is to develop a credit scorecard model which can be used as decision support system. A logistic regression with stepwise selection method is used to estimate the model parameters. The data that is used to construct the credit scorecard model is obtained from one of the pioneering banks in Turkish Banking Sector. The performance of the developed model is tested using statistical metrics including Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve and Gini statistics. The result reveals that the model performs well and it can be used as a decision support system for managing the credit risk by managers of the banks.
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