As most of the forest fires in South Korea are related to human activity, socio-economic factors are critical in estimating their probability. To estimate and analyze how human activity is influencing forest fire probability, this study considered not only environmental factors such as precipitation, elevation, topographic wetness index, and forest type, but also socio-economic factors such as population density and distance from urban area. The machine learning Maximum Entropy (Maxent) and Random Forest models were used to predict and analyze the spatial distribution of forest fire probability in South Korea. The model performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method, and models’ outputs were compared based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC). In addition, a multi-temporal analysis was conducted to determine the relationships between forest fire probability and socio-economic or environmental changes from the 1980s to the 2000s. The analysis revealed that the spatial distribution was concentrated in or around cities, and the probability had a strong correlation with variables related to human activity and accessibility over the decades. The AUC values for validation were higher in the Random Forest result compared to the Maxent result throughout the decades. Our findings can be useful for developing preventive measures for forest fire risk reduction considering socio-economic development and environmental conditions.

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There is an increasing need for spatial planning to manage coastal tourism, and applying social media data has emerged as an effective strategy to support coastal tourism spatial planning. Researchers and decision-makers require spatially explicit information that effectively reveals the current visitation state of the region. The purpose of this study is to identify coastal tourism hotspots considering appropriate spatial units in the regional scale using social media data to examine the advantages and limitations of applying spatial hotspots to spatial planning. Data from Flickr and Twitter with 30″ spatial resolution were obtained from four South Korean regions. Coastal tourism hotspots were then derived using Getis-Ord Gi. Comparing the derived hotspot maps with the visitation rate distribution maps, the derived hotspot maps sufficiently identified the spatial influences of visitors and tourist attractions applicable for spatial planning. As the spatial autocorrelation of social media data differs based on the spatial unit, coastal tourism hotspots according to spatial unit are inevitably different. Spatial hotspots derived from the appropriate spatial unit using social media data are useful for coastal tourism spatial planning.

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