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High-frequency (HF) surface-wave radar has a wide range of applications in marine monitoring due to its long-distance, wide-area, and all-weather detection ability. However, the accurate detection of HF radar vessels is severely restricted by strong clutter and interference, causing the echo of vessels completely submerged by clutter. As a result, the target cannot be detected and tracked for a period of time under the influence of strong clutter, which causes broken trajectories. To solve this problem, we propose an HF radar-vessel trajectory-prediction method based on a multi-scale convolutional neural network (MSCNN) that combines a gated recurrent unit and attention mechanism (GRU-AM) and a fusion with an autoregressive (AR) model. The vessel’s latitude and longitude information obtained by the HF radar is sent into the convolutional neural network (CNN) with different window lengths in parallel, and feature fusion is performed on the extracted multi-scale features. The deep GRU model is built to learn the time series with the GRU structure to preserve historical information. Different weights are given to the features using the temporal attention mechanism (AM), which helps the network learn the key information. The linear information on latitude and longitude at the current timestep is forecast by combining the AR model with the trajectory output from the AM to achieve a combination of linear and nonlinear prediction models. To make full use of the HF radar tracking information, the broken trajectory prediction is carried out by forward and backward computation using data from before and after the fracture, respectively. Weights are then assigned to the two predicted results by the entropy-value method to obtain the final ship trajectory by weighted summation. Field experiments show that the proposed method can accurately forecast the trajectories of vessels concealed in clutter. In comparison with other mainstream methods, the new method performs better in estimation accuracy for HF radar vessels concealed in clutter.

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