Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed that the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 10 4 km 2 , the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 10 4 km 2 , and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 10 4 km 2 under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.

Predicting the spatial distribution of species in relation to suitable areas under global climate change could provide some references for conservation and long-term management strategies for the species. In this study, the MaxEnt was optimized by adjusting the feature combination and regulation magnification parameters with the ENMeval data package. Based on 127 Cremastra appendiculata spatial distribution locations and 14 environmental factors, the potential distribution areas of C. appendiculata under the present and future climate conditions (2050s, 2070s) were simulated, and the dominant environmental factors influencing the spatial distribution of C. appendiculata were analyzed. The feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were selected as per the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The model showed complexity and degree of over-fitting (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.106, the difference in the curve values between the training and testing areas was 0.021) after establishing the optimal model (FC = LQH and RM = 2.5), and the results indicated that the optimal model performed well in simulating the potential spatial distribution of C. appendiculata (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.933). The results showed that the suitable habitat of C. appendiculata currently in China is 187.60 × 104 km2, while the highly suitable habitat is 118.47 × 104 km2, the moderately suitable habitat is 53.25 × 10 4 km2, and the poorly suitable habitat is 15.88 × 104 km2. There is an increasing trend in the suitable habitat of C. appendiculata under six climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in the 2050s and the 2070s, and that habitat will extend to the northwest as a whole. The highly suitable habitat of C. appendiculata in nature reserves is 0.47 × 104 km2; consequently, there is a large gap in the protection of C. appendiculata. The distribution of C. appendiculata was influenced by the temperature, precipitation, and normalized vegetation index.

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. In this study, MaxEnt default parameters were adjusted by the ENMeval package. Optimized MaxEnt models were used in analyzing potential geographical distributions under current and future climatic conditions (the 2050s and 2070s) and dominant environmental variables influencing their geographic distribution. The results provided reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. The results showed the area of the total suitable habitat for S. ciliatum in China is 32.51 × 104 km2, the total suitable habitat area for S. nepalense in China is 61.76 × 104 km2, and the area of the total suitable habitat for S. yunnanense in China is 89.73 × 104 km2 under current climatic conditions. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental variables influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11). Environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) affected the geographical distribution of S. nepalense; and environmental variables such as isothermality (bio3), temperature seasonality (bio4), and lower temperature of coldest month (bio6) affected the geographical distribution of S. yunnanense. The distribution range of Satyrium was extended as global warming increased, showing emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat will shift with a change to higher elevation areas and higher latitude areas in the future.

Satyrium is an endangered and rare genus of plant that has various pharmacodynamic functions. The prediction of potentially suitable habitat of Satyrium species and to analyze their changes, the model MaxEnt niche was applied; furthermore, the receiver operating characteristic curve was applied to analyze accuracy. The results provided an available reference for implementation of long-term conservation and management approaches for the species. Under the current climatic conditions, the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium ciliatum (S. ciliatum) in China is 32.51 × 104 km2, the total suitable habitat area for Satyrium nepalense (S. nepalense) in China is 61.76 × 104 km2, and the area of the total suitable habitat for Satyrium yunnanense (S. yunnanense) in China is 89.73 × 104 km2. The potential suitable habitat of Satyrium is mainly distributed in Southwest China. The major environmental changes influencing the geographical distribution of S. ciliatum were temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermality (Bio3), and mean temperature of coldest quarter (Bio11). The geographical distribution of S. nepalense was mainly affected by environmental variables like temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermal environment (Bio3), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19); and the geographical distribution of the species S. yunnanense were mainly affected by the environmental variables such as temperature seasonality (Bio4), isothermality (Bio3) and lower temperature of the coldest month (Bio6). The distribution range of Satyrium’s extended with global warming increased, in both situations’ emissions of greenhouse gases with lower concentration (SSP1-2.6) and the emission of greenhouse gases with higher concentration (SSP5-8.5). According to the study, the distribution of suitable habitat would shift with change to higher elevated areas in the coming time.