Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning

Summary Increasing the amount of carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) is an internationally recognized measure to mitigate climate change. Several approaches and tiers of methods may be used to analyze the contribution of HWP in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and removals at a regional and national level. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidelines on three tiers of methods for estimating annual carbon stock changes in the carbon pool of HWPs. These tiers mostly differ by the availability of input data and the level of HWP aggregation. In this case study for the Czech Republic, we have applied the production approach and alternative tiers of accounting methods, which are described in the IPCC guidelines, including the default method (tier 2) and the most advanced method (tier 3). We used country‐specific data and material flow analysis to trace the carbon flow over the entire forest‐based sector, including only the domestic harvest and the primary and secondary wood products manufactured within the country. The results of this study show that the carbon stored in the HWP pool could be underestimated if simpler methods and default values nonspecific to the country are applied. At the national level, applying the tier 3 method resulted in a 15.8% higher annual carbon inflow in the pool of HWPs compared to the tier 2 IPCC default method. This means that the advanced method reveals an apparently higher carbon sink in HWPs. A documented increase of carbon storage might bring additional credits to reporting countries, and, more important, it could promote the use of long‐life HWPs to mitigate climate change.

Climate change and transition towards a bioeconomy are seen as both challenges and opportunities for the forest-based sector in Europe. Transition towards a bioeconomy will in most cases rely on intensified use of renewable resources and/or advancement in technology. However, how can the intensified use of renewable resources be combined with climate change mitigation measures to increase carbon sinks in the forest-based sector? Additionally, what are the possible socio-economic and environmental impacts of intensified wood use? In this study, we examined the impacts of increased wood utilisation in Lithuania. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of increased domestic wood utilisation on: (i) employment; (ii) the economic performance of the sector; (iii) carbon in forest biomass and soil; and (iv) carbon in harvested wood products (HWP). The system boundaries were set in accordance with international greenhouse gas reporting to include only domestic wood flows. We assessed alternative wood utilisation scenarios using a forest resource model and a tool to assess sustainability impacts of (wood) value chains, using country specific data on wood (carbon) flows. Our results indicate that increased wood use could lead to trade-offs between six selected indicators. Opportunities for employment and the economic performance of the forest-based sector improved in all scenarios due to increased wood utilisation. However, when forest fellings increased, the carbon stored in forests decreased, the carbon stored in HWP increased, but overall the total carbon stored in forests and HWP decreased. When considering also additional substitution effects until the year 2100, the scenario with reduced wood exports generated larger total climate change mitigation effects than the baseline. Our results suggest that increased wood utilisation might support Lithuania's bioeconomy through increased socio-economic benefits. National positive climate change mitigation effects could be gained only if additional actions to utilise more domestic wood for long-life HWP will be taken.

Carbon storage in harvested wood products (HWPs) is seen as a measure to mitigate climate change. The increased use of long-life wood products, however, should be thoroughly analysed before being promoted as a climate mitigation strategy. The national carbon pool of HWPs is very dynamic, due to changing patterns of wood product consumption and trade. Carbon accounting models are a common tool for estimating and projecting carbon pools. The purpose of this study is to analyse and find the relevant features of existing models that are related to the carbon pool in HWPs. From the many existing models, we have selected several representative models. We have analysed these selected models in depth by looking at their features, components and application. The models have variable features, depending on their scope and the modelling objectives. Significant modelling components for assessing the climate change mitigation potential of wood products are often missing. For example, the material substitution effect in the construction sector is rarely quantified, even if it would result in a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we propose modelling components for a scenario-based model capable of using country-specific data for major groups of HWPs that would allow improved assessments of the climate change mitigation potential of alternative forest resource utilisation scenarios.