Aim  An understanding of the non‐breeding distribution and ecology of migratory species is necessary for successful conservation. Many seabirds spend the non‐breeding season far from land, and information on their distribution during this time is very limited. The black‐legged kittiwake, Rissa tridactyla, is a widespread and numerous seabird in the North Atlantic and Pacific, but breeding populations throughout the Atlantic range have declined recently. To help understand the reasons for the declines, we tracked adults from colonies throughout the Atlantic range over the non‐breeding season using light‐based geolocation. Location  North Atlantic. Methods  Geolocation data loggers were deployed on breeding kittiwakes from 19 colonies in 2008 and 2009 and retrieved in 2009 and 2010. Data from 236 loggers were processed and plotted using GIS. Size and composition of wintering populations were estimated using information on breeding population size. Results  Most tracked birds spent the winter in the West Atlantic, between Newfoundland and the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, including in offshore, deep‐water areas. Some birds (mainly local breeders) wintered in the North Sea and west of the British Isles. There was a large overlap in winter distributions of birds from different colonies, and colonies closer to each other showed larger overlap. We estimated that 80% of the 4.5 million adult kittiwakes in the Atlantic wintered west of the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge, with only birds from Ireland and western Britain staying mainly on the European side. Main conclusions  The high degree of mixing in winter of kittiwakes breeding in various parts of the Atlantic range implies that the overall population could be sensitive to potentially deteriorating environmental conditions in the West Atlantic, e.g. owing to lack of food or pollution. Our approach to estimating the size and composition of wintering populations should contribute to improved management of birds faced with such challenges.

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Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself.

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