Accounting for outcomes among those lost to follow-up yields a more informative assessment of retention. Structural barriers contribute most to silent transfers, whereas psychological and social barriers tend to result in longer-term care discontinuation.

Background Mortality after initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) among HIV-infected patients in resource limited settings is a critical measure of the effectiveness and comparative effectiveness of the global public health response. Unknown outcomes due to high loss to follow-up (LTFU) preclude accurate accounting of deaths and limit our understanding of effectiveness. Methods We evaluated in HIV-infected adults on ART in 14 clinics in five settings in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania using a sampling-based approach in which we intensively traced a random sample of lost patients (> 90 days late for last scheduled visit) and incorporated their vital status outcomes into analyses of the entire clinic population through probability-weighted survival analyses. Findings We followed 34,277 adults on ART from Mbarara and Kampala, Uganda; Eldoret and Kisumu, Kenya; and Morogoro, Tanzania. The median age was 35 years, 34% were men, and median pre-therapy CD4 count was 154 cells/μl. Overall 5,780 (17%) were LTFU, 991 (17%) were randomly selected for tracing and vital status was ascertained in 860 of 991 (87%). Incorporating outcomes among the lost increased estimated 3-year mortality from 3.9% (95% CI: 3.6%-4.2%) to 12.5% (95% CI: 11.8%-13.3%). The sample-corrected, unadjusted 3-year mortality across settings ranged from 7.2% in Mbarara to 23.6% in Morogoro. After adjustment for age, sex, pre-therapy CD4 value, and WHO stage, the sample-corrected hazard ratio comparing the setting with highest vs. lowest mortality was 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.4) and the risk difference for death at 3 years was 11% (95% CI: 5.0%-17.7%). Interpretation A sampling based approach is widely feasible and important for understanding mortality after starting ART. After adjustment for measured biological drivers, mortality differs substantially across settings despite delivery of a similar clinical package of treatment. Implementation research to understand the systems, community, and patient behaviors driving these differences is urgently needed.

Objectives To describe the CD4 cell count at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in low-income (LIC), lower middle-income (LMIC), upper middle-income (UMIC) and high-income (HIC) countries. Methods Patients aged ≥16 years starting cART in a clinic participating in a multi-cohort collaboration spanning six continents (International epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS and ART Cohort Collaboration) were eligible. Multi-level linear regression models were adjusted for age, gender and calendar year; missing CD4 counts were imputed. Findings 379,865 patients from nine LIC, four LMIC, four UMIC and six HIC were included. In LIC the median CD4 cell count at cART initiation increased by 83% from 80 to 145 cells/μl between 2002 and 2009. Corresponding increases in LMIC, UMIC and HIC were from 87 to 155 cells/μl (76% increase), 88 to 135 cells/μl (53%) and 209 to 274 cells/μl (31%). In 2009, compared to LIC, median counts were 13 cells/μl (95% CI -56 to +30) lower in LMIC, 22 cells/μl (-62 to +18) lower in UMIC and 112 /μl (+75 to +149) higher in HIC. They were 23 cells/μl (95% CI +18 to +28) higher in women than men. Median counts were 88 cells/μl (95% CI +35 to +141) higher in countries with an estimated national cART coverage >80%, compared to countries with <40% coverage. Conclusions Median CD4 cell counts at start of cART increased 2000-2009 but remained below 200 cells/μl in LIC and MIC and below 300 cells/μl in HIC. Earlier start of cART will require substantial efforts and resources globally.

BackgroundThe occurrence of HIV-1 and syphilis infections during pregnancy poses major health risks to the foetus due to mother-to-child transmission. We conducted surveillance of HIV and syphilis infections among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in Mainland Tanzania in 2011.MethodsThis surveillance was carried out in 133 ANCs selected from 21 regions in Tanzania. In each region, six ANC sites were selected, with urban, semi-urban, and rural areas contributing two each. All pregnant women who were attending selected sentinel ANC sites for the first time at any pregnancy between September and December 2011 were enrolled. Serial ELISA assays were performed to detect HIV infection in an unlinked anonymous manner using dried blood spot (DBS) after routine syphilis testing. Data analysis was conducted using Stata v.12 software.ResultsA total of 39,698 pregnant women representing 2.4 % of all pregnant women (1.68 million) attending ANCs in the Mainland Tanzania were enrolled. The overall HIV prevalence was found to be 5.6 % (95 % CI: 5.4–5.8 %). The risk for HIV infection was significantly higher among women aged 25–34 (cOR = 1.97, 95 % CI: 1.79–2.16; p < 0.05), older than 35 years (cOR = 1.88, 95 % CI: 1.62–2.17; p < 0.05) and those having 1–2 and 3–4 previous pregnancies. HIV infection was less prevalent among women attending rural ANC clinics (cOR = 0.46, 95 % CI 0.4–0.52; p < 0.05).The overall syphilis prevalence was 2.5 % (95 % CI: 2.3, 3.6). The risk for syphilis infection was significantly higher among women attending semi-urban and rural clinics and those having 3–4, and 5 previous pregnancies (p < 0.05). Marital status and level of education were not statistically significant with either of the two infections. HIV and syphilis co-infections occurred in 109 of 38,928 (0.3 %).ConclusionThe overall prevalence of HIV infection (5.6 %) and syphilis (2.5 %) found among pregnant women attending ANC clinics in Tanzania calls for further strengthening of current intervention measures, which include scaling up the integration of prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) services in Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) clinics.

Abstractobjective To analyse survival and retention rates of the Tanzanian care and treatment programme. methods Routine patient-level data were available from 101 of 909 clinics. Kaplan-Meier probabilities of mortality and attrition after ART initiation were calculated. Mortality risks were corrected for biases from loss to follow-up using Egger's nomogram. Smoothed hazard rates showed mortality and attrition peaks. Cox regression identified factors associated with death and attrition. Median CD4 counts were calculated at 6 month intervals.results In 88,875 adults, 18% were lost to follow up 12 months after treatment initiation, and 36% after 36 months. Cumulative mortality reached 10% by 12 months (15% after correcting for loss to follow-up) and 14% by 36 months. Mortality and attrition rates both peaked within the first six months, and were higher among males, those under 45 kg and those with CD4 counts below 50 cells ⁄ ll at ART initiation. In the first year on ART, median CD4 count increased by 126 cells ⁄ ll, with similar changes in both sexes.conclusion Earlier diagnoses through expanded HIV testing may reduce high mortality and attrition rates if combined with better patient tracing systems. Further research is needed to explore reasons for attrition.