In this paper, the relationship between climate variation and crop output in Uganda for the period 1981 to 2008 is examined. The time-varying ARCH model of the crop production function is used to estimate the relationships. Analysis of the incidence of rainfall and temperature variation from the long-term average indicates that it is insignificant. Estimates of the trend of rainfall and temperature suggest a gradual decline in volume of rainfall and record of temperatures in Uganda in the present and near future. ARCH model estimates show that a variation in rainfall and temperature from the long-term mean has significant effects on crop output, while exponential increase in rainfall has detrimental effect on crop output. It is recommended that the government should support farmers to adopt small-scale irrigation systems; and capacity of weather forecast agencies should be strengthened to monitor and educate the public on present and potential near-future climate variations.

Uganda's agriculture faces numerous challenges, including low productivity due to declining soil fertility. Yet, the majority agricultural households in the country do not use organic and inorganic fertilizers due to not well-known constraints. Using data from the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9, this paper provides insights into these constraints. Results show that most of the farm-households that use inorganic fertilizers also apply organic fertilizers. With regard to factors influencing adoption of fertilizer, lack of knowledge on use of and market information on fertilizer due to limited access to fertilizer-specific extension services is found to be perhaps the most limiting factor irrespective of fertilizer type. Low access to credit and constrained access to input and output markets due to distance are also key constraints to fertilizer use. Household characteristics including education level, household size, share of adults in the household, and ownership of livestock/poultry also stand-out as influencing factors on fertilizer adoption decisions. Results suggest that targeted interventions including extensive and intensive extension training and visits, and access to affordable credit and will be pertinent in the promotion fertilizer use in the country.

Government of Uganda and its development partners are targeting farmer groups as the vehicle for agricultural development because of the potential role they could play in promoting value addition, market and credit access. However there is limited empirical evidence on what drives membership to these groups. Using the Uganda Census of Agriculture 2008/9 data, this study reveals low levels of membership both at individual and household levels, with marked differences in regional participation. The key policy variables found to influence participation in farmer group included education attainment, distance to extension service and quality of road infrastructure. Thus, increasing membership to farmer groups requires government and its development partners to target more resources towards less educated farmers and those who live far from extension workers. The use of the local language in publicity materials is also important in ensuring participation among the illiterate and the less educated. Overall, there is a need for concerted efforts by all institutions supporting groups to ensure that existing groups have improved access to agricultural technologies and noticeable outcomes are achieved so as to attract more farmers.

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Maize is an important crop, produced by nearly all households in Uganda. Yet, the yield of the crop is low, mainly blamed on low use of improved technologies. In a bid to understand why farmers are reluctant to adopt modern agricultural technologies, which are hailed for enhancing productivity, this study assessed the effect of improved inputs use on maize yield and profit in Uganda. The analysis was based on the Uganda National Household Survey data of 2005/06. A graphical analysis was used to assess the yield and profit outcomes associated with use of improved seed and fertiliser. Stochastic production functions of yield and profit were estimated to assess the effect of use of improved inputs on yield and profit. Graphical results indicated that maize producers who applied fertiliser on improved seed obtained the highest yield but lower gross profit margin while farmers who never applied fertiliser on improved seed obtained lower yield but the highest gross profit margin. Regression results indicated that higher expenditure on fertiliser and traction per hectare had a significant (p<0.05) positive effect on yield. No significant effect on gross profit margin was however observed in the case of higher expenditure on fertiliser and traction per hectare in maize production. Results indicate that whereas expansion in area cultivated had a significantly (p<0.01) negative effect on yield, it was the most important (p<0.01) means of increasing profit. Education level and access to extension services are key farmer characteristics that were found to have a significantly (p<0.01) positive influence on the profit and yet no remarkable influence on yield. Notable was that maize producers that were members in the government extension agency, National Agricultural Advisory Services organization, (NAADS) had lower yield than farmers not in NAADS. These results suggest that NAADS and other agencies that are involved in promoting use of modern agricultural technologies in Uganda have an uphill task of proving and hence persuading farmers that use of these technologies not only enhances yield but also increases farm profits.