Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies
Transition modelling is an emerging but growing niche within the broader field of sustainability transitions research. The objective of this paper is to explore the characteristics of this niche in relation to a range of existing modelling approaches and literatures with which it shares commonalities or from which it could draw. We distil a number of key aspects we think a transitions model should be able to address, from a broadly acknowledged, empirical list of transition characteristics. We review some of the main strands in modelling of socio-technological change with regards to their ability to address these characteristics. These are: Ecoinnovation literatures (energy-economy models and Integrated Assessment Models), evolutionary economics, complex systems models, computational social science simulations using agent based models, system dynamics models and socio-ecological systems models. The modelling approaches reviewed can address many of the features that di erentiate sustainability transitions from other socio-economic dynamics or innovations. The most problematic features are the representation of qualitatively di erent system states and of the normative aspects of change. The comparison provides transition researchers with a starting point for their choice of a modelling approach, whose characteristics should correspond to the characteristics of the research question they face. A promising line of research is to develop innovative models of co-evolution of behaviours and technologies towards sustainability, involving change in the structure of the societal and technical systems.
a b s t r a c tThis paper discusses contextual issues in sociotechnical systems and transitions under the Multi Level Perspective (MLP). It emphasises inter system interactions, for which a typology is developed drawing on a review and meta level analysis of published transition case studies. The typology is subsequently associated to the MLP transitions pathways. A novel transition pathway, is derived through this process, namely new system emergence, for systems that emerge from contributions of existing antecedent sociotechnical systems.
Sociotechnical transitions is an emerging research area that uses several methods, amongst which case study and simulation models are often applied. This paper focuses on system dynamics modelling and simulation research and its potential contribution to transition research. Current system dynamics work comes from a wide range of disciplines and spans across the micro, meso, and macro levels which transitions are predominantly analysed along. This overlap carries considerable potential as a conceptual and theoretical basis for transition research. The paper explores this potential and provides a cursory exposition of system dynamics research and exemplary work that is directly relevant to transition research. It raises a number of points that indicate the potential of system dynamics for transition research in terms of methodology and case study research, the behavioural aspects of transitions, and particular subject areas that lie at the organizational field level: technology platforms, business models and organizational change.
The "performance gap" in the United Kingdom construction industry is a persistent problem as new building development projects underperform more often than not. The "performance gap" is partially attributed to the number of stages involved in building project development and the coordination difficulties of partners with different incentives. The project outcome is important for energy consumption, carbon emissions and occupant well-being. Thus, it is important to study the project management process in terms of the standard time, cost and quality parameters, but also in terms of project partner incentives and coordination, and the subsequent energy performance and resultant indoor environmental conditions. A system dynamics model of project management processes is developed to explore the implications of partner coordination for building quality. The system dynamics model is coupled to a building performance simulation model to explore building energy consumption and Indoor Environmental Quality, and apply this on a recent building project case study. Results show that greater project partner alignment can reduce annual energy consumption up to 12% and CO2 emissions up to 37%, with greater emphasis in the design stage of the project subject to resource availability. The trade-offs involved on value appropriation are considered and discussion of results points to possible ways for improvement.
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