Predicting species' capacity to respond to climate change is an essential first step in developing effective conservation strategies. However, conservation prioritization schemes rarely take evolutionary potential into account. Ecotones provide important opportunities for diversifying selection and may thus constitute reservoirs of standing variation, increasing the capacity for future adaptation. Here, we map patterns of environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation in the central African rodent Praomys misonnei to identify areas with the greatest turnover in genomic composition. We also project patterns of environmentally associated genomic variation under future climate change scenarios to determine where populations may be under the greatest pressure to adapt. While precipitation gradients influence both genomic and craniometric variation, vegetation structure is also an important determinant of craniometric variation. Areas of elevated environmentally associated genomic and craniometric variation overlap with zones of rapid ecological transition underlining their importance as reservoirs of evolutionary potential. We also find that populations in the Sanaga river basin, central Cameroon and coastal Gabon are likely to be under the greatest pressure from climate change. Lastly, we make specific conservation recommendations on how to protect zones of high evolutionary potential and identify areas where populations may be the most susceptible to climate change.

Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species’ distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.

The amphibian disease chytridiomycosis in amphibians is caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and has resulted in dramatic declines and extinctions of amphibian populations worldwide. A hypervirulent, globally-dispersed pandemic lineage (Bd-GPL) is thought to be largely responsible for population declines and extinctions, although numerous endemic lineages have also been found. Recent reports of amphibian declines have been linked to the emergence of Bd in Cameroon, a major hotspot of African amphibian diversity. However, it is not known whether Bd-GPL or other lineages have been found in this region. This study therefore aims to examine Bd lineage diversity in the region and predict the distribution of this pathogen under current and future climate conditions using data from this study and from historical records. Almost 15% (52/360) of individuals tested positive for Bd using a standard quantitative PCR diagnostic. Infected amphibians were found at all eight sites sampled in this study. Species distribution models generated in BIOMOD2 indicate that areas with highest predicted environmental suitability occur in the Cameroon highlands and several protected areas throughout the country. These areas of high environmental suitability for Bd are projected to shift or decrease in size under future climate change. However, montane regions with high amphibian diversity are predicted to remain highly suitable. Phylogenetic analysis of the ITS sequences obtained from a set of positive Bd samples indicate that most fall within the Bd-GPL lineage while the remainder group with isolates from either Brazil or South Korea. Although more in depth phylogenetic analyses are needed, identification of Bd-GPL lineages in areas of high amphibian diversity emphasizes the need to continue to monitor for Bd and develop appropriate conservation strategies to prevent its further spread.

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