BackgroundThis study describes the time trend of renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the Provence-Alpes Côte d’Azur region (PACA) between 2004 and 2015, and forecasts up to 2030.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted on all ESRD patients treated in PACA and recorded in the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) during this period. Time trends and forecasts to 2030 were analyzed using Poisson regression models.ResultsSince 2004, the number of new patients has steadily increased by 3.4% per year (95% CI, 2.8–3.9, p < 0.001) and the number of patients receiving RRT has increased by 3.7% per year (RR 1.037, 95% CI: 1.034–1.039, p < 0.001). If these trends continue, the PACA region will be face with 7371 patients on dialysis and 3891 with a functional renal transplant who will need to be managed in 2030. The two most significant growth rates were the percentage of obese people (RR 1.140, 95% CI: 1.131–1.149, p < 0.001) and those with diabetes (RR 1.070, 95% CI; 1.064–1.075, p < 0.001).ConclusionThis study highlights the increase in the number of ESRD patients over 12 years, with no prospect of stabilization. These findings allow us to anticipate the quality and quantity of care offered and to propose more preventive measures to combat obesity and diabetes.

Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre -including this research content -immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

No abstract

No abstract