Contingency management, in particular the management of unanticipated events outside the control of an ordinary planning system, has in the last 50 years become an important and f'requently debated issue in the scientifïc literature on complex systems management under risk conditions. The urban system can be regarded as such an open complex system where extemal events, not always foreseeable with a closed system's model, may strongly impact on the intemal dynamics of an urban area. Conventionally, planning the future presupposes collecting information and analyzing it rationally in order to control for unexpected contingency events. But it is an important question in the field of urban planning, how proper strategies can be developed to deal with extemal uncertainty and shocks that transcend the imagination of policy-makers. How should decision-makers respond to such unforeseen jumps in a system? The aim of this paper is to present and apply a new scient$c decision support method based on the future studies literature, with the aim to help decision-makers in the strategie management of uncertainty and risk in order "to anticipate the extraordinary events correctly in order to act more effeively" (Godet, 1987). In particular, we wil1 deploy here the scenario methodology in combination with multicriteria analysis and mzzy set theory, as a useful leaming tool for the govemance of complex dynamic systems. In current debates on policy-makers' possible reactions to uncertainty (e.g., in the context of sustainability strategies), very often the so-called "no-regret" principle is advocated. The validity of this approach is tested, in the context of the present paper, on real-world threats in the Vesuvio volcanic area in the vicinity of the densely populated city of Naples, Italy. Four different policy scenarios wil1 be developed with the purpose to examine, control and reduce the risk for the people concemed in case of a future volcanic eruption and to lay, at the same time, the foundation for a drastic rehabilitation of the entire metropolitan area. PNO 11 FTGC

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This paper discusses how Clinical Pathways (CPs) are defined, used and maintained in two hospital settings. A literature review and observational study are combined to illustrate the composite nature of CPs and the different roles they play in different phases of their life-cycle, with respect to the theme of bridging medical knowledge with the related practices by which physicians deal with a specific care problem. We take the case of the CP as a paradigmatic case to stress the urgent need for an integrated approach with the computer-based support of information and knowledge management in rapidly evolving cooperative work settings.

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