This paper synthesizes current knowledge on the impacts of the Gibe III dam and associated large-scale commercial farming in the Omo-Turkana Basin, based on an expert elicitation coupled with a scoping review and the collective knowledge of an multidisciplinary network of researchers with active data-collection programs in the Basin. We use social-ecological systems and political ecology frameworks to assess the impacts of these interventions on hydrology and ecosystem services in the Basin, and cascading effects on livelihoods, patterns of migration, and conflict dynamics for the people of the region. A landscape-scale transformation is occurring in which commodities, rather than staple foods for local consumption, are becoming the main output of the region. Mitigation measures initiated by the Ethiopian government—notably resettlement schemes—are not adequately buffering affected communities from food insecurity following disruption to indigenous livelihood systems. Therefore, while benefits are accruing to labor migrants, the costs of development are currently borne primarily by the agro–pastoralist indigenous people of the region. We consider measures that might maximize benefits from the changes underway and mitigate their negative outcomes, such as controlled floods, irrigating fodder crops, food aid, and benefit sharing. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1139-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This article draws on long-term ethnographic fieldwork to examine some recent livelihood transformations that have taken place in the Turkana region of northern Kenya. In doing so, it discusses some of the ways in which uncertainty and variability have been managed in Turkana to date and considers what this means in relation to a future that promises continued radical economic and ecological change. Discussing a selection of examples, we argue that understandings of contemporary transformative processes are enhanced through attention to the ways in which various forms of knowledge have been constituted and implemented over the long term. We suggest that ongoing transformations within livelihood practices, inter-livelihood relationships and corresponding patterns of mobility might best be understood as manifestations of a long-standing capacity for successfully managing the very uncertainty that characterises daily life.

Turkana County has a long history of drought and development interventions and remains one of the poorest counties in Kenya. In Turkana, livelihoods are increasingly under threat because of climate change, conflict, and the changing land use and management. There are complex interactions between the multiple drivers of change in landscapes and livelihoods in the region. The question addressed here is: How have external development interventions contributed to the changing pastoralist livelihoods in Turkana? This study is specific to the lower part of the Turkwel River basin, particularly the Nanyee irrigated area in Turkwel, Loima sub-County of Turkana County. This article examines the external development interventions during the colonial, post-independence, and contemporary periods to reveal the ways that land use practices and livelihoods have changed across these periods. Land use practices are changing due to the growing human population, droughts, urbanization, and dispossession of grazing areas through state and donor-supported interventions. It is suggested in this article that the change from a system of customary, unrestricted grazing to one of enclosed pastures has threatened pastoral territories, as well as cultures and livelihoods over the past six decades. The new set of development interventions introduced by international and national actors have failed to support local livelihoods, instead joining the list of existing problems that undermine pastoralism, including drought, livestock diseases, and cattle rustling.

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