The aim of the study was to explore possible effects of climate change on the geographic range or local impact of several forest pathogenic fungi. To this aim, (1) the parameters of species' responses to climatic variables were determined, in two types of models: specific statistical models and the generic model CLIMEX; (2) these models were used to make simulations under a future climatic scenario, based on a general circulation model of climate, which was regionalized over France. A range of pathogens commonly reported in Europe were studied : Melampsora larici-populina, M. allii-populina and M. medusae, agents of poplar rust, Mycosphaerella pini , agent of red-band disease of pines, Melampsora pinitorqua., agent of pine twisting rust, Cryphonectria parasitica, agent of chestnut blight, Phytophthora cinnamomi, agent of ink disease on chestnut and oaks, Sphaeropsis sapinea and Biscogniauxia mediterranea, opportunistic pathogens (cortical endophytes) on pines and oaks, respectively. The predicted warming would be favourable to most studied species, especially those for which winter survival is a limiting factor linked to low temperatures (P. cinnamomi et M. medusae). For some species such as M. pini, the favourable effect of warming would be counterbalanced by the negative effect of a decrease in summer rainfall, leading to a stable or decreased impact of these pathogens by the end of the century. Conversely, B. mediterranea et S. sapinea, favoured by water stress, should have an increased impact. Interest and limitations of the different models are discussed. Some implications of the projected changes in "forest phytosanitary landscape" are presented in terms of research and management issues.
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