Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability matrices have full-rank and are ergodic, and if the state-dependent distributions are all distinct, but not necessarily linearly independent. Based on this identification result, we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation theory. First, we show that the asymptotic contrast, the Kullback-Leibler divergence of the hidden Markov model, also identifies the true parameter vector nonparametrically. Second, for classes of state-dependent densities which are arbitrary mixtures of a parametric family, we establish the consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator. Here, identification of the mixing distributions need not be assumed. Numerical properties of the estimates and of nonparametric goodness of fit tests are investigated in a simulation study.

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We extend the concept of the ridgeline from Ray and Lindsay (2005) to finite mixtures of general elliptical densities with possibly distinct density generators in each component. This can be used to obtain bounds for the number of modes of two-component mixtures of t distributions in any dimension. In case of proportional dispersion matrices, these have at most three modes, while for equal degrees of freedom and equal dispersion matrices, the number of modes is at most two. We also give numerical illustrations and indicate applications to clustering and hypothesis testing.

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