It is challenging to quantitatively clarify the determining medical and social factors of COVID-19 mortality, which varied by 2-3 orders of magnitude across countries. Here, we present evidence that the whole-cycle patterns of mortality follow a logistic law for 52 countries. A universal linear law is found between the ICU time in the early stage and the most important quantity regarding the epidemic: its duration. Saturation mortality is found to have a power law relationship with median age and bed occupancy, which quantitatively explains the great variation in mortality based on the two key thresholds of median age (=38) and bed occupancy (=15%). We predict that deaths will be reduced by 36% when the number of beds is doubled for countries with older populations. Facing the next wave of the epidemic, this model can make early predictions on the epidemic duration and medical supply reservation.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed new features in terms of substantial changes in rates of infection, cure, and death as a result of social interventions, which significantly challenges traditional SEIR-type models. In this paper we developed a symmetry-based model for quantifying social interventions for combating COVID-19. We found that three key order parameters, separating degree (S) for susceptible populations, healing degree (H) for mild cases, and rescuing degree (R) for severe cases, all display logistic dynamics, establishing a novel dynamic model named SHR. Furthermore, we discovered two evolutionary patterns of healing degree with a universal power law in 23 areas in the first wave. Remarkably, the model yielded a quantitative evaluation of the dynamic back-to-zero policy in the third wave in Beijing using 12 datasets of different sizes. In conclusion, the SHR model constitutes a rational basis by which we can understand this complex epidemic and policymakers can carry out sustainable anti-epidemic measures to minimize its impact.

It is challenging to quantitatively clarify the determining medical and social factors of COVID-19 mortality, which varied by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude across countries. Here, we present evidence that the temporal evolution of mortality follows a logistic law for 54 countries in four waves. A universal linear law is found between the early mortality growth time and the epidemic duration, one of the most important quantities, with a factor of 7.3 confirmed by data. Saturation mortality is found to have a power law relationship with median age and bed occupancy, which quantitatively explains the great variation in mortality based on the two key thresholds of median age (= 38) and bed occupancy (= 22%). We predict that deaths will be reduced by 38.5% when the number of beds is doubled for countries with older populations. Facing the next wave of the epidemic, this model can make early predictions on the epidemic duration and hospital bed demand.

The COVID-19 pandemic reveals new features of substantial changes in rates of infection, cure, and death, resulting from social intervention, which significantly challenges traditional SEIR-type models. This paper develops a symmetry-based model for quantifying social interventions in combating COVID-19. We find three key order parameters, separating degree (S) for susceptible populations, healing degree (H) for mild cases, and rescuing degree (R) for server cases, all display logistic dynamics, which establish a novel dynamic model named SHR. Furthermore, we discover two evolutionary patterns of healing degree with a universal power law in 23 areas in the first wave. Remarkably, the model yields a quantitative evaluation of the ‘dynamic back-to-zero’ policy in the third wave in Beijing by 12 datasets of different sizes. In conclusion, the SHR model constitutes a rational basis to understand this complex epidemic, and for policymakers to carry out sustainable anti-epidemic measures to minimize its impact.

It is challenging to quantitatively clarify the determining medical and social factors of COVID-19 mortality, which varied by 2-3 orders of magnitude across countries. Here, we present evidence that the whole-cycle patterns of mortality follow a logistic law for 52 countries. A universal linear law is found between the ICU time in the early stage and the most important quantity regarding the epidemic: its duration. Saturation mortality is found to have a power law relationship with median age and bed occupancy, which quantitatively explains the great variation in mortality based on the two key thresholds of median age (=38) and bed occupancy (=15%). We predict that deaths will be reduced by 36% when the number of beds is doubled for countries with older populations. Facing the next wave of the epidemic, this model can make early predictions on the epidemic duration and medical supply reservation.