Here we present an objective global climatology of polar lows. In order to obtain objective detection criteria, the efficacy of several parameters for separating polar lows

The climatology of polar lows over the Nordic Seas has been investigated using infrared satellite images for the period between 2000 and 2009. The same region was studied in the 1980s using traditional weather charts for the period between 1972 and 1982. One motivation for the present study was to revisit this climatology, but using a different decade and taking advantage of the vastly improved coverage and dissemination of infrared satellite images since the 1980s. The fact that forecasters at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute had introduced a routine to register polar-low events systematically from 2000 and onward also provided a unique opportunity for extending the existing repository of subjectively identified polarlow observations. On average we found 12 polar-low events per year in the region of study. This is more than the earlier investigation, but we believe that this can be explained by the fact that the previous study relied almost uniquely on weather charts with very little information from ocean areas in the Nordic Seas. The largest numbers were found in January with an average of 2.8 polar-low events per year. The study reconfirms the February minimum found in previous studies, but on the basis of our data we could not show that this minimum is statistically significant. It is suggested that this may be explained as a manifestation of the coldest winter month, when a surface-pressure high over the Scandinavian mainland is common and the large-scale atmospheric flow is less favourable to polar-low formation. This hypothesis was tested by calculating the mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) anomaly for January, February and March from an atmospheric reanalysis. This revealed a positive anomaly over Scandinavia and northwest Russia not found in the pressure distributions for January and March.

A B S T R A C TTo develop a 14-winter (OctoberÁApril; 1999Á2013) climatic description of polar low (PL) occurrence for the Nordic Seas, systems have been tracked using images acquired from the Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Also, the dominant PL characteristics Á their temporal and spatial distributions, size, lifespan, distance travelled, speed of propagation and directions Á have been determined. On average, 14 PL events occur per winter but there is strong inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability. Although systems may form and travel over the whole Nordic Seas, their genesis is enhanced in areas characterised by warm oceanic currents. At the start of the season (OctoberÁNovember), systems mainly form over the Greenland and Norwegian Seas, but further into winter they form increasingly over the Barents Sea. In connection with recent low-ice winters, new areas of PL formation are evident, particularly to the west of Spitsbergen and in the Barents Sea. PL speeds of propagation range between 5 and 13 m/s but are observed to be highly variable among cases and even during the lifespan of individual PLs. To a considerable extent, the direction of movement is controlled by the large-scale flow in the lowest atmospheric layers, but we also observed cyclonic co-rotation of some pairs of PLs due to their influence on the ambient flow. Although these generally move southward or southeastward, a substantial number of PLs have westward and even northward tracks. PLs in the western part of the region average larger than their eastern counterparts. This study also highlights that PLs characteristics and tracks differ according to weather regimes.

In this study a 1-yr dataset of a convective-scale atmospheric prediction system of the European Arctic (AROME-Arctic) is compared with the ECMWF’s medium-range forecasting, ensemble forecasting, and reanalysis systems, by using surface and radiosonde observations of wind and temperature. The focus is on the characteristics of the model systems in the very short-term forecast range (6–15 h), but without a specific focus on lead-time dependencies. In general, AROME-Arctic adds value to the representation of the surface characteristics. The atmospheric boundary layer thickness, during stable conditions, is overestimated in the global models, presumably because of a too diffusive turbulence scheme. Instead, AROME-Arctic shows a realistic mean thickness compared to the radiosonde observations. All models behave similarly for the upper-air verification and surprisingly, as well, in forecasting the location of a polar low in the short-range forecasts. However, when comparing with the largest wind speeds from ocean surface winds and at coastal synoptic weather stations during landfall of a polar low, AROME-Arctic shows the most realistic values. In addition to the model intercomparison, the limitation of the representation of sea ice and ocean surface characteristics on kilometer scales are discussed in detail. This major challenge is illustrated by showing the rapid drift and development of sea ice leads during a cold-air outbreak. As well, the available sea surface temperature products and a high-resolution ocean model result are compared qualitatively. New developments of satellite products, ocean–sea ice prediction models, or parameterizations, tailored toward high-resolution atmospheric Arctic prediction, are necessary to overcome this limitation.

[1] Polar Lows (PLs) are intense meso-cyclones forming in winter at high latitudes over open water. Using several datasets of PLs over the North Atlantic, the synoptic environment conducive to their development is determined. The 500 hPa geopotential height, the difference between the sea surface temperature and the 500 hPa air temperature, the near-surface wind and air temperature, and the 300 hPa potential vorticity present significant anomaly patterns over large areas centered over PL genesis zones, suggesting cold air outbreaks and stratospheric intrusions. PLs develop within a northerly flow in the Norwegian Sea, a northeasterly flow in the Barents Sea and a westerly flow in the Labrador Sea. PLs form after a certain build-up, the outbreak day being marked by strong winds and PV intensification. The relationship between PLs and daily weather regimes over North Atlantic-Europe is then investigated. Regimes have a typical lifetime of 8-10 days, similar to the large-scale anomalies associated with PLs. Over the Norwegian and Barents seas from 1999 to 2011, 37% of PLs are observed during the Atlantic Ridge regime (AR) and 28% in the negative phase regime of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), whereas PL probability of occurrence is reduced by half for the positive phase of NAO and the Scandinavian blocking (SB) regimes. Over the Labrador Sea, most PLs occur during NAO+ while they are almost absent during NAOÀ. Demonstrating the temporal variation of key factors based on an updated dataset and relating PLs to weather regimes will introduce novel and important elements in PL forecasting methodology.