Global food production faces immense pressure, much of which can be attributed to climate change. A detailed evaluation of the impact of climate change on the yield of staple crops in Kazakhstan, a major food exporter, is required for more scientific planting management. In this study, the Mann–Kendall test and Theil–Sen Median slope were used to determine climate trends and staple food yields over the past 30 years; random forest was used to analyze the importance of monthly climatic factors; states were classified according to climatic factors through systematic clustering method; and lastly, the influence of climate on yield was analyzed using panel regression models. The upward trend in wind speed and potato yield throughout Kazakhstan was apparent. Furthermore, barley and wheat yields had increased in the southeast. We determined that for wheat, frostbite should be prevented after the warmer winters in the high-latitude areas. Except for July–August in the low-latitude areas, irrigation water should be provided in the other growth periods and regions. As similar effects were reported for barley, the same preventive measures would apply. For potatoes, tuber rot, caused by frost or excessive precipitation in May, should be prevented in high-latitude areas; soil dryness should be alleviated during the germination and seedling stages in low-latitude areas; and irrigation and cooling should be maintained during tuber formation and maturation. Furthermore, hot dry air in March and April could damage the crops.

Population growth increases the threat to global food security. Kazakhstan, a major agricultural nation, has made significant contributions to world food security; however, a wide gap exists between its food yield and that of other major crop-producing countries. Increasing food productivity in Kazakhstan through enhancing the utilization of natural endowments under existing cropland conditions would help alleviate global food pressure. Therefore, we elucidated the factors restricting Kazakhstan’s food productivity and proposed reasonable countermeasures. We analyzed the food production structure based on yearbooks. Correlation and stepwise regression were conducted on crop yield potential factors. The states of Kazakhstan were classified by hierarchical cluster and agronomic characteristics were evaluated using normalized scores. Wheat (60.3%), barley (14.9%), and potatoes (16%) are the main food crops produced in Kazakhstan. The ideal regional environment-based geographical crop configuration is “Northern—Wheat, Southern—Barley and Wheat, and Western—Potatoes.” The key limiting factors of wheat yield are water shortage and soil alkalization, while for barley, it is soil alkalization. The current planting distribution in Kazakhstan is suboptimal. Water-saving irrigation and agricultural runoff, staple crop planting layout optimization, organic fertilizer promotion, drought-resistant crop variety cultivation, and agricultural technology training must be prioritized to overcome crop yield constraints in Kazakhstan.

Soil erosion and extensive management, as key factors limiting the sustainability of the agroecosystem in the Loess Plateau, severely hamper the high-quality development of regional agriculture. Soil fertility and element synergy can be enhanced by applying mulching measures properly. However, there is a lack of systematic research into how soil stoichiometric characteristics under mulching affect crop productivity. This study focused on the agroecosystem of the Loess Plateau. Based on the 11-year field positioning experiment, the management measures of straw mulching (SM), plastic mulching (PM) and ridge-film mulching (RM) were selected to investigate the effects of long-term mulching measures on the stoichiometric characteristics of topsoil and the impact of crop productivity under the ecological stoichiometry theory. The findings revealed a significant increase in soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus contents and microbial biomass under mulching. SM and RM significantly decreased the stoichiometric ratio of soil available nutrients, whereas PM and RM had effective alleviating effects on C:N and C:P imbalance. The yield components of long-term SM and RM greatly increased and responded favorably to the synergy of soil carbon and phosphorus. This study provides theoretical guidance and technical support for the assessment of the effective and sustainable use of agricultural resources on the Loess Plateau.

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