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A water traffic system is a huge, nonlinear, complex system, and its stability is affected by various factors. Water traffic accidents can be considered to be a kind of mutation of a water traffic system caused by the coupling of multiple navigational environment factors. In this study, the catastrophe theory, principal component analysis (PCA), and multivariate statistics are integrated to establish a situation recognition model for a navigational environment with the aim of performing a quantitative analysis of the situation of this environment via the extraction and classification of its key influencing factors; in this model, the natural environment and traffic environment are considered to be two control variables. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of the Yangtze River is considered as an example, and six critical factors, i.e., the visibility, wind, current velocity, route intersection, channel dimension, and traffic flow, are classified into two principal components: the natural environment and traffic environment. These two components are assumed to have the greatest influence on the navigation risk. Then, the cusp catastrophe model is employed to identify the safety situation of the regional navigational environment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The simulation results indicate that the situation of the navigational environment of this area is gradually worsening from downstream to upstream.

A novel real-time collision avoidance method for autonomous ships based on modified velocity obstacle (VO) algorithm and grey cloud model is proposed. A typical VO algorithm is used to judge whether there is a collision risk for ships in the potential collision area (PCA). Then, in order to quantify the collision risk of ships in different encounter situations within the PCA and trigger a prompt warning of danger of collision, this study sets up a novel collision risk assessment method based on asymmetric grey cloud model (AGC). It can effectively consider the randomness, ambiguity, and incompleteness of the information in the ship collision risk evaluation process. Moreover, reachable collision-free velocity sets under different encounter situations and optimal steering angle model are constructed. A real-time collision avoidance method based on modified VO algorithm and manoeuvring motion characteristics of vessels is put forward. In this model, various constraints are considered including the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs), ship manoeuvrability, and ordinary practice of seaman. Finally, several case studies are carried out to verify the performance and reliability of the collision avoidance model. The results show that the proposed method can not only effectively identify and quantify the collision risk in real-time but also offer proper collision-free solutions for autonomous ships.