Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Jiang, Dan; Hao, Guozhu; Huang, Liwen; Zhang, Dan

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158482

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…For example, along the longitudinal axis, sites CT, FL and WZ were near a large metropolitan area with a large population and sizeable industries, including natural gas chemical industries, petrochemical industries, new energy resources, and steel and equipment manufacturing 31 . These industries are the main source of new chemical materials and the heavy chemical industry in Chongqing City, which has resulted in more external nutrients flowing into the TGR 31 32 . As such, the NO 3 − -N, TP, TN, and TOC contents in these three monitoring sections were generally higher than those in other sections.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of spatial-temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community to large-scale reservoir operation: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Guo

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Large rivers are commonly regulated by damming, yet the effects of such disruption on bacterioplankton community structures have not been adequately studied. The aim of this study was to explore the biogeographical patterns present under dam regulation and to uncover the major drivers structuring bacterioplankton communities. Bacterioplankton assemblages in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) were analyzed using Illumina Miseq sequencing by comparing seven sites located within the TGR before and after impoundment. This approach revealed ecological and spatial-temporal variations in bacterioplankton community composition along the longitudinal axis. The community was dynamic and dominated by Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria phyla, encompassing 39.26% and 37.14% of all sequences, respectively, followed by Bacteroidetes (8.67%) and Cyanobacteria (3.90%). The Shannon-Wiener index of the bacterioplankton community in the flood season (August) was generally higher than that in the impoundment season (November). Principal Component Analysis of the bacterioplankton community compositions showed separation between different seasons and sampling sites. Results of the relationship between bacterioplankton community compositions and environmental variables highlighted that ecological processes of element cycling and large dam disturbances are of prime importance in driving the assemblages of riverine bacterioplankton communities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Responses of spatial-temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community to large-scale reservoir operation: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Guo

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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“…Waterborne traffic accidents are characterized by suddenness, randomness, and uncertainty [36]. Ship navigation accidents occur frequently, which is affected by the coupling effect of multiple factors.…”

Section: Traffic-intensive Watersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Causal Analysis of Traffic-Intensive Waters Based on Infectious Disease Dynamics

Chen

Liu

Wan

2019

JMSE

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Accidents occur frequently in traffic-intensive waters, which restrict the safe and rapid development of the shipping industry. Due to the suddenness, randomness, and uncertainty of accidents in traffic-intensive waters, the probability of the risk factors causing traffic accidents is usually high. Thus, properly analyzing those key risk factors is of great significance to improve the safety of shipping. Based on the analysis of influencing factors of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters, this paper proposes a cloud model to excavate the factors affecting navigational risk, which could accurately screen out the key risk factors. Furthermore, the risk causal model of ship navigation in traffic-intensive waters is constructed by using the infectious disease dynamics method in order to model the key risk causal transmission process. Moreover, an empirical study of the Yangtze River estuary is conducted to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed models. The research results show that the cloud model is useful in screening the key risk factors, and the constructed causal model of ship navigational risks in traffic-intensive waters is able to provide accurate analysis of the transmission process of key risk factors, which can be used to reduce the navigational risk of ships in traffic-intensive waters. This research provides both theoretical basis and practical reference for regulators in the risk management and control of ships in traffic-intensive waters.

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“…Many vessels detained in the lock areas, putting great pressure on the operational management of ship locks. On the other hand, the crowed ships in the lock areas also increase the safety and security risks [12]. Therefore, it is both significant and urgent to solve the problem of ship detention in ship locks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy-Based Decision-Making Model for Improving the Carrying Capacity of Ship Locks: A Three Gorges Dam Case

Shi

Zhang

et al. 2019

JMSE

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This paper develops a decision-making model to assist the improvement of the carrying capacity of ship locks by combing fuzzy logic, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). A three-level hierarchical structure is constructed to identify the key factors influencing the carrying capacity of ship locks from the aspects of ship locks, vessels, environment, and administration. On this basis, a series of targeted strategies have been put forward to improve the carrying capacity of ship locks, and the TOPSIS method is applied to rank these strategies in terms of their performance. A case study of the five-stage dual-track ship lock of the Three Gorges Dam in China has been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed model, and correlation analysis is conducted to verify the identified influencing factors in order to eliminate potential bias which may be generated from using AHP. The results obtained from the proposed methods are consistent with the real-life situation to a certain extent, indicating that the proposed method can provide a useful reference for improving the carrying capacity of ship locks.

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Use of Cusp Catastrophe for Risk Analysis of Navigational Environment: A Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Cited by 8 publications

References 12 publications

Responses of spatial-temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community to large-scale reservoir operation: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Responses of spatial-temporal dynamics of bacterioplankton community to large-scale reservoir operation: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Risk Causal Analysis of Traffic-Intensive Waters Based on Infectious Disease Dynamics

A Fuzzy-Based Decision-Making Model for Improving the Carrying Capacity of Ship Locks: A Three Gorges Dam Case

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