Fuego volcano, Guatemala is a high (3,800 m) composite volcano that erupts gas-rich, high-Al basalt, often explosively. It spends many years in an essentially open vent condition, but this activity has not been extensively observed or recorded until now. The volcano towers above a region with several tens of thousands of people, so that patterns in its activity might have hazard mitigation applications. We conducted 2 years of continuous observations at Fuego (2005Fuego ( -2007 during which time the activity consisted of minor explosions, persistent degassing, paroxysmal eruptions, and lava flows. Radiant heat output from MODIS correlates well with observed changes in eruptive behavior, particularly during abrupt changes from passive lava effusion to paroxysmal eruptions. A short-period seismometer and two low-frequency microphones installed during the final 6 months of the study period recorded persistent volcanic tremor (1-3 Hz) and a variety of explosive eruptions. The remarkable correlation between seismic tremor, thermal output, and daily observational data defines a pattern of repeating eruptive behavior: 1) passive lava effusion and subordinate strombolian explosions, followed by 2) paroxysmal eruptions that produced sustained eruptive columns, long, rapidly emplaced lava flows, and block and ash flows, and finally 3) periods of discrete degassing explosions with no lava effusion. This study demonstrates the utility of lowcost observations and ground-based and satellite-based remote sensing for identifying changes in volcanic activity in remote regions of underdeveloped countries.

Eruption frequency patterns through time for the current (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016)(2017)(2018) activity cycle at Volcán de Fuego derived from remote sensing data: Evidence for an accelerating cycle of explosive paroxysms and potential implications of eruptive activity. AbstractVolcán de Fuego is a stratovolcano in Guatemala that has produced over 50 VEI  2 eruptions since 1524. After two decades of quiescence, in 1999 Fuego entered a new period of eruptive activity that continues until the present day, characterised by persistent Strombolian activity interspersed with occasional "paroxysmal" eruptions of greater magnitude, the most recent of which occurred in 2018. The land surrounding Fuego accommodates tens of thousands of people, so greater understanding of its eruptive behaviour has important implications for hazard assessment. Nevertheless, there is relatively little literature that studies recent (since 1999) activity of Fuego in detail.Using time-series analysis of remote sensing thermal data during the period 2000 -2018 combined with recent bulletin reports, we present evidence for a new eruptive regime beginning in 2015. We find that this regime is defined by a greater frequency of paroxysmal eruptions than in previous years and is characterized by the following sequence of events: (i) effusion of lava flows and increase in summit explosive activity, followed by (ii) an intense eruptive phase lasting 24 -48 hours, producing a sustained eruptive column, continuous explosions, and occasional pyroclastic flows, followed by (iii) decrease in explosive activity. We discuss various models that explain this increase in paroxysmal frequency, and consider its implications for hazard assessment at Fuego. We advocate the pairing of remote sensing data with monitoring reports for understanding long-term changes in behaviour of poorlyinstrumented volcanoes. The results that we present here provide a standard for informed assessment of future episodes of unrest and paroxysmal eruptions of Fuego. KeywordsVolcán de Fuego -paroxysm -MIROVA -radiative power

In volcanic regions, reliable estimates of mechanical properties for specific volcanic events such as cyclic inflation-deflation cycles by magmatic intrusions, thermal stressing, and high temperatures are crucial for building accurate models of volcanic phenomena. This study focuses on the challenge of characterizing volcanic materials for the numerical analyses of such events. To do this, we evaluated the physical (porosity, permeability) and mechanical (strength) properties of basaltic rocks at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala) through a variety of laboratory experiments, including: room temperature, high temperature (935 • C), and cyclically-loaded uniaxial compressive strength tests on as-collected and thermally-treated rock samples. Knowledge of the material response to such varied stressing conditions is necessary to analyze potential hazards at Pacaya, whose persistent activity has led to 13 evacuations of towns near the volcano since 1987. The rocks show a non-linear relationship between permeability and porosity, which relates to the importance of the crack network connecting the vesicles in these rocks. Here we show that strength not only decreases with porosity and permeability, but also with prolonged stressing (i.e., at lower strain rates) and upon cooling. Complimentary tests in which cyclic episodes of thermal or load stressing showed no systematic weakening of the material on the scale of our experiments. Most importantly, we show the extremely heterogeneous nature of volcanic edifices that arise from differences in porosity and permeability of the local lithologies, the limited lateral extent of lava flows, and the scars of previous collapse events. Input of these process-specific rock behaviors into slope stability and deformation models can change the resultant hazard analysis. We anticipate that an increased parameterization of rock properties will improve mitigation power.

Terrestrial volcanic eruptions are the consequence of magmas ascending to the surface of the Earth. This ascent is driven by buoyancy forces, which are enhanced by bubble nucleation and growth (vesiculation) that reduce the density of magma. The development of vesicularity also greatly reduces the 'strength' of magma, a material parameter controlling fragmentation and thus the explosive potential of the liquid rock. The development of vesicularity in magmas has until now been viewed (both thermodynamically and kinetically) in terms of the pressure dependence of the solubility of water in the magma, and its role in driving gas saturation, exsolution and expansion during decompression. In contrast, the possible effects of the well documented negative temperature dependence of solubility of water in magma has largely been ignored. Recently, petrological constraints have demonstrated that considerable heating of magma may indeed be a common result of the latent heat of crystallization as well as viscous and frictional heating in areas of strain localization. Here we present field and experimental observations of magma vesiculation and fragmentation resulting from heating (rather than decompression). Textural analysis of volcanic ash from Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala reveals the presence of chemically heterogeneous filaments hosting micrometre-scale vesicles. The textures mirror those developed by disequilibrium melting induced via rapid heating during fault friction experiments, demonstrating that friction can generate sufficient heat to induce melting and vesiculation of hydrated silicic magma. Consideration of the experimentally determined temperature and pressure dependence of water solubility in magma reveals that, for many ascent paths, exsolution may be more efficiently achieved by heating than by decompression. We conclude that the thermal path experienced by magma during ascent strongly controls degassing, vesiculation, magma strength and the effusive-explosive transition in volcanic eruptions.

Thermal Remote Sensing for Volcano Monitoring volcanological community. The results presented clearly demonstrate how the open access of satellite thermal data and the sharing of derived products allow a better understanding of ongoing volcanic phenomena, and therefore constitute an essential requirement for the assessment of volcanic hazards.