Civil conflict in Syria, started in March 2011, led to a massive wave of forced immigration from Northern Syria to the Southeastern regions of Turkey, which later had serious economic/political repercussions on the MENA region and most of Europe. This paper exploits this natural experiment to estimate the impact of Syrian refugees on the labor market outcomes of natives in Turkey. Using a difference-indifferences strategy, we find that immigration has considerably affected the employment outcomes of natives, while its impact on wage outcomes has been negligible. We document notable employment losses among informal workers as a consequence of refugee inflows. Formal employment increased slightly potentially due to increased social services in the region. The majority of those who lost their informal jobs have either left the labor force or remained unemployed. Formal employment and unemployment rates have increased, while labor force participation, informal employment, and job finding rates have declined among natives. Disadvantaged groups, i.e., women, younger workers, and less-educated workers, have been affected the worst. The prevalence of informal employment in the Turkish labor markets has amplified the negative impact of Syrian refugee inflows on natives' labor market outcomes. Overall, the impact of Syrian refugee inflows on the Turkish labor markets has been limited, which suggests that the potential costs on the European and other affected labor markets might also be limited.

No abstract

The article analyzes the direction and scope of the responsiveness of real wages to the business cycle in Turkey using longitudinal data from 2005 to 2015. We found that wages in Turkey are procyclical; one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate induces a 0.6% decline in real wages. There is a variation in the patterns along the lines of wage distribution among the subgroups with relations to skills. Less-educated workers have acyclical wages. Compatible with this evidence, we found that the workers who earn around the minimum wage also have acyclical wages. High share of minimum wage earners suppresses wage cyclicality. Consistent with strict employment protection legislation and loose wage determination, wages of relatively high-income employees who mostly have formal work arrangements are procyclical.