Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-ofthe-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

[1] We examine the latest decadal predictions performed with the coupled model MPI-ESM as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use ensembles of uninitialized and yearly initialized experiments to estimate the forecast skill for surface air temperature. Like for its precursor, the initialization of MPI-ESM improves forecast skill for yearly and multi-yearly means, predominately over the North Atlantic for all lead times. Over the tropical Pacific, negative skill scores reflect a systematic error in the initialization. We also examine the forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means. Skill scores of winter means are predominantly positive over northern Europe. In contrast, summer to autumn means reveal positive skill scores over central and south-eastern Europe. The skill scores of summer means are attributable to an observed pressuregradient response to the North Atlantic surface temperatures.

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Earth System Models (ESMs) generally suffer from a poor simulation of the High-Latitude Southern Ocean (HLSO). Here we aim at a better understanding of the shortcomings by investigating the sensitivity of the HLSO to the external freshwater flux and the horizontal resolution in forced and coupled simulations with the Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). Forced experiments reveal an immediate reduction of open-ocean convection with additional freshwater input. The latter leads to a remarkably realistic simulation of the distinct water-mass structure in the central Weddell Sea featuring a temperature maximum of +0.5 °C at 250 m depth. Similar, but more modest improvements occur over a time span of 40 years after switching from a forced to a coupled simulation with an eddy-resolving version of MPIOM. The switch is accompanied with pronounced changes of the external freshwater flux and the wind field, as well as a more realistic heat flux due to coupling. Similar to the forced freshwater-flux experiments, a heat reservoir develops at depth, which in turn decreases the vertically integrated density of the HLSO and reduces the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to rather realistic values. Coupling with a higher resolution version of the atmosphere model (ECHAM6) yields distinct improvements of the HLSO water-mass structure and sea-ice cover. While the coupled simulations reveal a realistic amount of Antarctic runoff, its distribution appears too concentrated along the coast. Spreading the runoff over a wider region, as suggested in earlier studies to mimic the effect of freshwater transport through icebergs, also leads to noticeable improvements of the HLSO water-mass properties, predominantly along the coast. This suggests that the spread of the runoff improves the representation of Antarctic Bottom Water formation through enhanced near-boundary convection rather than weakened open-ocean convection