ObjectivesTo study clinical predictors for radiographic progression after 1 year in an early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) trial.MethodsIn the SWEFOT trial population, disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) naïve RA patients started methotrexate; 3-month responders (DAS28 <3.2) continued (n=147), while non-responders were randomised to addition of sulfasalazine+hydroxychloroquine (n=130) or infliximab (n=128). X-rays were scored by the Sharp-van der Hejde score (SHS) method and radiographic progression was defined as a ≥5 increase after 1 year. Potential baseline predictors of radiographic progression were tested using multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for potential confounders.Results79 of 311 patients with available radiographs at baseline and follow-up had radiographic progression. The following baseline parameters were independent predictors of radiographic progression at 1 year: baseline erosions (adjusted OR=2.29, 95% CI 1.24 to 4.24), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (adjusted OR per tertile increase=1.72, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.65) and C-reactive protein (adjusted OR per tertile increase=1.52, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.26). Current smoking was an independent predictor of radiographic progression (adjusted OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.45). These results remained after further adjustment for treatment strategy. Three-dimensional matrix including current smoking status, erosions and C-reactive protein tertiles showed a 12–63% risk gradient from patients carrying none compared with all predictors. Rheumatoid factor (RF)/anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) positivity did not significantly predict radiographic progression using SHS increase ≥5 as cut-off. In a secondary exploratory analysis using cut-off >1, both RF and anti-CCP positivity were significant predictors in the unadjusted, but not the adjusted analyses. The other parameters also remained significant using this lower cut-off.ConclusionsIn addition to previously described predictors, we identified smoking as a strong independent risk factor for radiographic progression in early RA.Trial registration numberNCT00764725.

Most early RA patients who achieve low disease activity after 3-4 months of methotrexate monotherapy continue to have low disease activity during 2 years follow-up, and additional treatment is needed infrequently. Some radiological progression occurs in most patients, and may be marked or severe in some, even despite sustained DAS28 remission. Close monitoring for radiological progression is thus warranted.

IntroductionThis study aimed to assess the utility of musculoskeletal ultrasound (MSUS) in patients with joint symptoms using a probabilistic approach.MethodsOne hundred and three patients without prior rheumatologic diagnosis and referred to our clinic for evaluation of inflammatory arthritis were included. Patients were assessed clinically including joint examination, laboratory testing including acute-phase reactants, rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti citrulinated protein antibody (ACPA), and radiographs of hands and feet if clinically indicated. A diagnostic assessment was then performed by the responsible rheumatologist where the probability of a) any inflammatory arthritis and b) rheumatoid arthritis was given on a 5-point scale ranging from 0 to 20% up to 80 to 100% probability. Subsequently, an ultrasound examination of the wrist, metacarpophalangeal (MCP), proximal interphalangeal (PIP) joints 2 to 5 in both hands, metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints 2 to 5 in both feet and any symptomatic joints was performed and the results presented to the same rheumatologist. The latter then assessed the diagnostic probabilities again, using the same scale.ResultsThe rheumatologists’ certainty for presence/absence of inflammatory arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis was increased significantly following ultrasound performance. The proportion of patient for whom diagnostic certainty for inflammatory arthritis was maximal was 33.0% before and 71.8% after musculoskeletal ultrasound (P <0.001). With regard to a diagnosis of RA, the proportions were 31.1% pre-test and 61.2% post-test (P <0.001). MSUS findings agreed with the final diagnosis in 95% of patients.ConclusionMusculoskeletal ultrasound, when added to routine rheumatologic investigation, greatly increases the diagnostic certainty in patients referred for the evaluation of inflammatory arthritis. The changes from pre-test to post-test probability quantify the diagnostic utility of musculoskeletal ultrasound in probabilistic terms.