PurposeThe main motivation of the present study is to understand the severity of the effect of health shock on Iran's oil economy and analyze the role of government under these conditions.Design/methodology/approachDynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can show the precise interactions between market decision-makers in the context of general equilibrium. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models.FindingsThe results of the survey of hands-on policies scenarios compared to the state of hands-off policy indicate that the effect of government expending shocks on the economy under pandemic disease conditions has much less feedback on macroeconomic variables.Originality/valueAs a proposed policy, it is recommended that the government play a stabilizing role under pandemic disease conditions.Key messages There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.

This paper deals with the global energy consumption to forecast future projections based on primary energy, global oil, coal and natural gas consumption using a hybrid Cuckoo optimization algorithm and information of British Petroleum Company plc and BP Amoco plc. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has some significant disadvantages, such as training slowly, easiness to fall into local optimal point, and sensitivity of the initial weights and bias. To overcome the shortcomings, an improved ANN structure, that is optimized by the Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA), is proposed in this paper (COANN). The performance of the COANN is evaluated with Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Correlation Coefficient (CC) between the output of the model and the actual dataset. Finally, CO 2 emission in the world by 2050 is forecasted using COANN. The findings showed that COANN is a helpful and reliable tool for monitoring global warming. This proposed method will assist experts, policy planners and researchers who study greenhouse gases. The method can be used as a potential tool for policymakers and governments to make policy on global warming monitoring and control. The proposed method can play a key role in the global climate changes policies and can have a significant impact on the efficiency or inefficiency of government's intervention policies.

Money demand is one of the most important economic variables which are a critical component in appointing and choosing appropriate monetary policy, because it determines the transmission of policy-driven change in monetary aggregates to the real sector. In this paper, the data of economic indicators in Iran are presented for estimating the money demand using biogeography-based optimization (BBO) algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and a new hybrid metaheuristic method based on biogeography-based optimization and particle swarm optimization algorithm (BBPSO). The data are used in two forms (i.e. linear and exponential) to estimate money demand values based on true liquidity, Consumer price index, GDP, lending interest rate, Inflation, and official exchange rate. The available data are partly used for finding optimal or near-optimal values of weighting parameters (1974–2013) and partly for testing the models (2014–2018). The performance of methods is evaluated using mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). According to the simulation results, the proposed method (i.e. BBPSO) outperformed the other models. The findings proved that the recommended method was an appropriate tool for effective money demand prediction in Iran. These data were the result of a comprehensive look at the most influential factors for money market demand. With this method, the demand side of this market was clearly defined. Along with other markets, the consequences of economic policy could be analyzed and predicted. • The article provides a method for observing the effect of economic scenarios on the money market and the analysis obtained by this proposed method allows experts, public sector economics, and monetary economist to see a clearer explanation of the country's liquidity plan. • The method presented in this article can be beneficial for the policy makers and monetary authorities during their decision-making process.

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Pandemics are not new, but they continue to prevail in the last three decades. A variety of reasons such as globalization, trade growth, urbanization, human behavior change, and the rise of the prevalence of viral diseases among animals can account for this issue. Outbreaks of COVID-19 indicated that viral diseases have spread easily among nations, influencing their economic stability. In this vein, the motivation behind the present study was to get an understanding of the effect of the rise of the health disaster risk on the dynamics of Iran's macroeconomic variables by using Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. As opposed to Computable General Equilibrium models, DSGE models can be evaluated in a stochastic environment. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models. The results demonstrated that increased health disaster risk has a remarkable negative effect on macroeconomic variables. According to the findings of the research and the significance of public vaccination as an essential solution for improving health status and quality of life, it was suggested that the government pave the path for the thriving of businesses and socio-economic activities as early as possible by employing specific policies such as tax exemption or budget allocation for vaccine manufacturing companies or importers.