Background: Although dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) assessed areal bone density (aBMD) is the clinical standard for determining fracture risk, the majority of older adults who sustain a fracture do not have osteoporosis (T-score < −2.5). Importantly, bone fragility results not only from low BMD, but also from deterioration in bone structure. We used high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) data from eight cohorts to evaluate whether HR-pQCT indices were associated with fracture risk independently of femoral neck (FN) aBMD and FRAX (Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) score. Methods: Participants included 7,254 individuals (66% women) from cohorts in the USA (Framingham, Mayo Clinic), France (QUALYOR, STRAMBO, OFELY), Switzerland (GERICO), Canada (CaMos), and Sweden (MrOS). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazards ratios (HRs) for the association between bone parameters (per standard deviation, SD, deficit) and incident fracture, adjusting for age, sex, height, weight and cohort. Findings: Mean baseline age was 69 (±9) years (range, 40 to 96). Cumulative incidence of fracture was 11% (n=765) over a mean follow-up time of 4.6 (± 2.4) years. The majority of participants (92%) had a femoral neck T-score >−2.5, and thus did not meet diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis. Failure load was the bone measure most strongly associated with risk of fracture: tibia HR=2.40 (1.98-2.91), radius HR=2.13 (1.77-2.56), per SD decrease in failure load. HRs for other bone indices ranged from HR=1.12 (1.03-1.23) per SD increase in tibia cortical porosity to HR=1.58 (1.45-1.72) per SD decrease in radius trabecular volumetric bone density (vBMD). After further adjustment for FN aBMD or FRAX, HRs were attenuated, but most bone parameters remained significantly associated with fracture. Cortical density, trabecular number, and trabecular thickness at the distal radius were the best set of predictors of fracture; while the same indices plus cortical area were identified for the tibia. These HR-pQCT indices and failure load improved prediction of fracture, beyond FN aBMD alone or FRAX. Interpretation: Results from this large international cohort of women and men confirm prior studies showing that deficits in trabecular and cortical bone density and structure contribute to fracture risk independently of aBMD and FRAX. Measurements of cortical and trabecular bone density and morphology at the peripheral skeleton may improve identification of those at highest risk for fracture. Funding: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Arthritis Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases, R01AR061445

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Older adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) tend to have normal or greater areal bone mineral density (aBMD), as measured by DXA, than those who do not have diabetes (non-T2D). Yet risk of fracture is higher in T2D, including 40% to 50% increased hip fracture risk. We used HR-pQCT to investigate structural mechanisms underlying skeletal fragility in T2D. We compared cortical and trabecular bone microarchitecture, density, bone area, and strength in T2D and non-T2D. In secondary analyses we evaluated whether associations between T2D and bone measures differed according to prior fracture, sex, and obesity. Participants included 1069 members of the Framingham Study, who attended examinations in 2005 to 2008 and underwent HR-pQCT scanning in 2012 to 2015. Mean age was 64 AE 8 years (range, 40 to 87 years), and 12% (n ¼ 129) had T2D. After adjustment for age, sex, weight, and height, T2D had lower cortical volumetric BMD (vBMD) (p < 0.01), higher cortical porosity (p ¼ 0.02), and smaller cross-sectional area (p ¼ 0.04) at the tibia, but not radius. Trabecular indices were similar or more favorable in T2D than non-T2D. Associations between T2D and bone measures did not differ according to sex or obesity status (all interaction p > 0.05); however, associations did differ in those with a prior fracture and those with no history of fracture. Specifically, cortical vBMD at the tibia and cortical thickness at the radius were lower in T2D than non-T2D, but only among those individuals with a prior fracture. Cortical porosity at the radius was higher in T2D than non-T2D, but only among those who did not have a prior fracture. Findings from this large, community-based study of older adults suggest that modest deterioration in cortical bone and reductions in bone area may characterize diabetic bone disease in older adults. Evaluation of these deficits as predictors of fracture in T2D is needed to develop prevention strategies in this rapidly increasing population of older adults.

Heritability, the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by genetic factors, can be estimated from pedigree data 1 , but such estimates are uninformative with respect to the underlying genetic architecture. Analyses of data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on unrelated individuals have shown that for human traits and disease, approximately one-third to two-thirds of heritability is captured by common SNPs 2-5 . It is not known whether the remaining heritability is due to the imperfect tagging of causal variants by common SNPs, in particular if the causal variants are rare, or other reasons such as overestimation of heritability from pedigree data. Here we show that pedigree heritability for height and body mass index (BMI) appears to be fully recovered from whole-genome sequence (WGS) data on 21,620 unrelated individuals of European ancestry. We assigned 47.1 million genetic variants to groups based upon their minor allele frequencies (MAF) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) with variants nearby, and estimated and partitioned variation accordingly. The estimated heritability was 0.79 (SE 0.09) for height and 0.40 (SE 0.09) for BMI, consistent with pedigree estimates. Low-MAF variants in low LD with neighbouring variants were enriched for heritability, to a greater extent for protein altering variants, consistent with negative selection thereon. Cumulatively variants in the MAF range of 0.0001 to 0.1 explained 0.54 (SE 0.05) and 0.51 (SE 0.11) of heritability for height and BMI, respectively. Our results imply that the still missing heritability of complex traits and disease is accounted for by rare variants, in particular those in regions of low LD.

Key Points Question Is there an association between obesity and mortality incorporating weight history? Findings In this cohort study that included 6197 participants from the original and offspring cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study, a monotonic association was observed between maximum body mass index measured over 24 years of weight history and subsequent mortality, with increasing risks observed across the obese I and obese II categories compared with the normal-weight group. Meaning Eliciting weight history in clinical practice may be valuable for identifying patients at increased risk of mortality.