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The risk attending oil pollution is difficult to assess because of the different economic and ecological effects that may be caused, depending upon the geographical, hydrological and marine conditions. An enormous difference exists between estimates of oil losses from pipelines although from oil platforms the various estimates of losses are in closer agreement. On the basis of statistical data it is suggested that two or three major oil spills per year will occur in the North Sea, a major spill being one involving an oil loss of over 135 tonnes. Supertankers carry oil at about 40% of the cost of transport in small tankers. The bigger the tanker the greater the loss of oil when an accident occurs though the frequency of accident is less. The tankers owned by oil companies have a better accident-free record than the independent carriers and tankers sailing under flags of convenience have a worse record than those under other national flags. Oil spillages on the high seas usually causes little damage and on rocky coasts the damage is short lived. In shallow marine waters with minimal tidal effects and varied marine life the consequences could be disastrous and possibly irreversible. Beyond stating that the economic losses would be enormous under the last mentioned condition it is difficult to quantify the damage in economic terms. Consequently, a reasonable approach to an assessment of the economic costs of oil spillages is to estimate the cost of the measures that would have to be taken to prevent them and to deal with them if they occur. For instance in the AMOCO CADIZ accident resulting in a loss of about 220 000 tons of oil involved 10 000 persons in clean up operations, 4 500 metres of oil booms, 1000 vehicles, 50 vessels, aircraft and direct costs (ie. non-capital) estimated at 150 million DM, so that the primary economic damage during the year after the spillage would be 500-1000 million DM. This ignores the economic aspects of the ecological damage. Since an analysis of the causes of tanker accidents shows that they are mostly due to human failure and vessel defects it becomes necessary to devise policies that will as far as possible prevent such accidents and their consequences. This principle of prevention is the environmental policy which the Federal Republic of Germany will follow. This policy takes into account the maximum tolerable pollution from oil, the maximum extent of oil pollution that could result from oil tanker disasters under given situations, the capital and operating costs of dealing with such emergencies and the manpower and administration required for such operations. These risks involved in oil transportation would be studied and the desirability of discouraging the use of supertankers would be taken into account.

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