Based on explicit present value calculations, the paper criticizes the view that the PAYGO system wastes economic resources. In present value terms, there is nothing to be gained from a transition to funded system even though the latter offers a permanently higher rate of return. The sum of the implicit and explicit tax burdens that result from the need to respect the existing pension claims is the same under all systems and transition strategies. Nevertheless a partial transition to a funded system may be a way to overcome the current demographic crisis because it replaces missing human capital with real capital and helps smooth tax and child reading costs across the generations.

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for in-depth conversations, without implying in any manner whatsoever that they adhere to our arguments. The train of arguments and the most essential charts have already been presented by H.-W. Sinn at the following events: internal seminar, Banca d'Italia, 22 April 2011; public lecture, Humboldt University Berlin, 9 May 2011; Introduction, Munich Economic Summit, 19 Mai 2011. We thank Michael Burda for serving as the formal discussant for the Berlin lecture. This is an updated version of the one presented and discussed at a press briefing on 22 June 2011 in Frankfurt. We thank the participants for their valuable comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. An online video of the Berlin presentation is available at: http://www.cesifo-group.de/berlinvideo NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.