for in-depth conversations, without implying in any manner whatsoever that they adhere to our arguments. The train of arguments and the most essential charts have already been presented by H.-W. Sinn at the following events: internal seminar, Banca d'Italia, 22 April 2011; public lecture, Humboldt University Berlin, 9 May 2011; Introduction, Munich Economic Summit, 19 Mai 2011. We thank Michael Burda for serving as the formal discussant for the Berlin lecture. This is an updated version of the one presented and discussed at a press briefing on 22 June 2011 in Frankfurt. We thank the participants for their valuable comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. An online video of the Berlin presentation is available at: http://www.cesifo-group.de/berlinvideo NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

Several countries use shutdown strategies to contain the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, at the expense of massive economic costs. While this suggests a conflict between health protection and economic objectives, we examine whether the economically optimal exit strategy can be reconciled with the containment of the epidemic. We use a novel combination of epidemiological and economic simulations for scenario calculations based on empirical evidence from Germany. Our findings suggest that a prudent opening is economically optimal, whereas costs are higher for a more extensive opening process. This rejects the view that there is a conflict with health protection. Instead, it is in the common interest of public health and the economy to relax non-pharmaceutical interventions in a manner that keeps the epidemic under control.

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