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Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from human industrial activities are causing a progressive alteration of seawater chemistry, termed ocean acidification, that has decreased seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration markedly since the Industrial Revolution. Many marine organisms, like molluscs and corals, build hard shells and skeletons using carbonate ions, and they exhibit negative overall responses to ocean acidification. This adds to other chronic and acute environmental pressures and promotes shifts away from calcifierrich communities.In this study, we examine the possible implications of ocean acidification on mollusc harvests worldwide by examining present production, consumption, and export and by relating those data to present and future surface ocean chemistry forecast by a coupled-climate ocean model (Community Climate System 3.1; CCSM3). We identify the "transition decade" when future ocean chemistry will distinctly differ from that of today (2010), and when mollusc harvest levels similar to those of the present cannot be guaranteed if present ocean chemistry is a significant determinant of today's mollusc production. We assess nations' vulnerability to ocean acidification-driven decreases in mollusc harvests by comparing nutritional and economic dependences on mollusc harvests, overall societal adaptability, and the amount of time until the transition decade. Projected transition decades for individual countries will occur 10-50 years after 2010. Countries with low adaptability, high nutritional or economic dependence on molluscs, rapidly approaching transition decades, or rapidly growing populations will therefore be most vulnerable to ocean acidification-driven mollusc harvest decreases. These transition 3 SubmittedtoFishandFisheries,August17,2010; RevisedversionsubmittedMay20,2011decades suggest how soon nations should implement strategies, such as increased aquaculture of resilient species, to help maintain current per capita mollusc harvests.

Large and growing segments of the U.S. population consume seafood or engage in marine recreation. These activities provide significant benefits but also bring risk of exposure to marine borne illness. To manage these risks, it is important to understand the incidence and cost of marine borne disease. We review the literature and surveillance/monitoring data to determine the annual incidence of disease and health consequences due to marine borne pathogens from seafood consumption and beach recreation in the United States. Using this data, we employ a cost-of-illness model to estimate economic impacts. Our results suggest that health consequences due to marine borne pathogens in the United States have annual costs on the order of $900 million. This includes $350 million due to pathogens and marine toxins specifically identified as causing food-borne disease, an estimated $300 million due to seafood borne disease with unknown etiology, $30 million from direct exposure to Vibrio vulnificus, V. parahaemolyticus and V. alginolyticus, and $300 million due to gastrointestinal illness from beach recreation. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the degree of underreporting of certain pathogen-specific acute marine-related illnesses, the conservative assumptions we have used in constructing our estimate suggest that it should be considered a lower bound on true costs.

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