We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing dynamics of a financial market populated with chartists perceive losses and gains symmetrically. One of our contributions is validating the agent-based models using real financial data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange. We find that our framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price behaviour, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, power-law tails in the distribution of returns, excess volatility, volatility clustering, the absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, and the power-law autocorrelations in absolute returns. In addition to this, we find that loss aversion improves market quality and market stability.

Purpose This paper aims at developing a behavioral agent-based model for interacting financial markets. Additionally, the effect of imposing Tobin taxes on market dynamics is explored. Design/methodology/approach The agent-based approach is followed to capture the highly complex, dynamic nature of financial markets. The model represents the interaction between two different financial markets located in two countries. The artificial markets are populated with heterogeneous, boundedly rational agents. There are two types of agents populating the markets; market makers and traders. Each time step, traders decide on which market to participate in and which trading strategy to follow. Traders can follow technical trading strategy, fundamental trading strategy or abstain from trading. The time-varying weight of each trading strategy depends on the current and past performance of this strategy. However, technical traders are loss-averse, where losses are perceived twice the equivalent gains. Market makers settle asset prices according to the net submitted orders. Findings The proposed framework can replicate important stylized facts observed empirically such as bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, clustered volatility, power-law tails, persistent autocorrelation in absolute returns and fractal structure. Practical implications Artificial models linking micro to macro behavior facilitate exploring the effect of different fiscal and monetary policies. The results of imposing Tobin taxes indicate that a small levy may raise government revenues without causing market distortion or instability. Originality/value This paper proposes a novel approach to explore the effect of loss aversion on the decision-making process in interacting financial markets framework.

Purpose Asset pricing dynamics in a multi-asset framework when investors’ trading exhibits the disposition effect is studied. The purpose of this paper is to explore asset pricing dynamics and the switching behavior among multiple assets. Design/methodology/approach The dynamics of complex financial markets can be best explored by following agent-based modeling approach. The artificial financial market is populated with traders following two heterogeneous trading strategies: the technical and the fundamental trading rules. By simulation, the switching behavior among multiple assets is investigated. Findings The proposed framework can explain important stylized facts in financial time series, such as random walk price dynamics, bubbles and crashes, fat-tailed return distributions, absence of autocorrelation in raw returns, persistent long memory of volatility, excess volatility, volatility clustering and power-law tails. In addition, asset returns possess fractal structure and self-similarity features; though the switching behavior is only allowed among the asset markets. Practical implications The model demonstrates stylized facts of most real financial markets. Thereafter, the proposed model can serve as a testbed for policy makers, scholars and investors. Originality/value To the best of knowledge, no research has been conducted to introduce the disposition effect to a multi-asset agent-based model.

PurposeSince the beginning of 2020, economies faced many changes as a result of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The effect of COVID-19 on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) is investigated in this research.Design/methodology/approachTo explore the impact of COVID-19, three periods were considered: (1) 17 months before the spread of COVID-19 and the start of the lockdown, (2) 17 months after the spread of COVID-19 and the during the lockdown and (3) 34 months comprehending the whole period (before and during COVID-19). Due to the large number of variables that could be considered, dimensionality reduction method, such as the principal component analysis (PCA) is followed. This method helps in determining the most individual stocks contributing to the main EGX index (EGX 30). The PCA, also, addresses the multicollinearity between the variables under investigation. Additionally, a principal component regression (PCR) model is developed to predict the future behavior of the EGX 30.FindingsThe results demonstrate that the first three principal components (PCs) could be considered to explain 89%, 85%, and 88% of data variability at (1) before COVID-19, (2) during COVID-19 and (3) the whole period, respectively. Furthermore, sectors of food and beverage, basic resources and real estate have not been affected by the COVID-19. The resulted Principal Component Regression (PCR) model performs very well. This could be concluded by comparing the observed values of EGX 30 with the predicted ones (R-squared estimated as 0.99).Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, no research has been conducted to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 on the EGX following an unsupervised machine learning method.

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