SUMMARY Simultaneous use of multiple independent data sets can improve constraints on earthquake source‐model parameters. However, the ways in which data sets have been combined in the past are manifold and usually qualitative. In this paper we present a method to combine geodetic data in source model estimations, which includes characterizing the data errors and estimating realistic model‐parameter uncertainties caused by these errors. We demonstrate this method in a case study of the June 2000 Kleifarvatn earthquake, which occurred on Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland. We begin by showing to what extent additional data can positively influence the source modelling results, by combining both GPS and descending‐orbit InSAR data, which were used in two earlier studies of that event, with InSAR data from an ascending orbit. We estimate the data error covariances of the InSAR observations and base the data weights in our model‐parameter optimization on the corresponding data variance–covariance matrix. We also derive multiple sets of synthetic data errors from the estimated data covariances that we use to modify the original data to generate numerous data realizations. From these data realizations we estimate the model‐parameter uncertainties. We first model the Kleifarvatn earthquake as a simple uniform‐slip fault and subsequently as a fault with variable slip and rake. Our fault model matches well with the field observations of coseismic surface ruptures and its near‐vertical dip (83°) agrees with the regional faulting style as well as with aftershock locations. The two published source models of the event, on the other hand, both differ from our model as well as differing for one another. These studies, which were based on the descending InSAR data alone (the first study) and on that same data and GPS data (the second study), both neglect correlations in the InSAR data and do not report model‐parameter uncertainties. Therefore, to compare these results with our model, we simulate the earlier model estimation set‐ups and provide realistic estimates of the model‐parameters uncertainties for these cases. We then discuss the significance of the difference between the existing fault models and demonstrate that both the inclusion of additional independent data as well as the covariance‐based data weights improve the model‐parameter estimation.

The Pamir orogen, Central Asia, is the result of the ongoing northward advance of the Indian continent causing shortening inside Asia. Geodetic and seismic data place the most intense deformation along the northern rim of the Pamir, but the recent 7 December 2015, Mw7.2 Sarez earthquake occurred in the Pamir's interior. We present a distributed slip model of this earthquake using coseismic geodetic data and postseismic field observations. The earthquake ruptured an ∼80 km long, subvertical, sinistral fault consisting of three right‐stepping segments from the surface to ∼30 km depth with a maximum slip of three meters in the upper 10 km of the crust. The coseismic slip model agrees well with en échelon secondary surface breaks that are partly influenced by liquefaction‐induced mass movements. These structures reveal up to 2 m of sinistral offset along the northern, low‐offset segment of modeled rupture. The 2015 event initiated close to the presumed epicenter of the 1911 Mw∼7.3 Lake Sarez earthquake, which had a similar strike‐slip mechanism. These earthquakes highlight the importance of NE trending sinistral faults in the active tectonics of the Pamir. Strike‐slip deformation accommodates shear between the rapidly northward moving eastern Pamir and the Tajik basin in the west and is part of the westward (lateral) extrusion of thickened Pamir plateau crust into the Tajik basin. The Sarez‐Karakul fault system and the two large Sarez earthquakes likely are crustal expressions of the underthrusting of the northwestern leading edge of the Indian mantle lithosphere beneath the Pamir.

Abstract:In permafrost areas, seasonal freeze-thaw cycles result in upward and downward movements of the ground. For some permafrost areas, long-term downward movements were reported during the last decade. We measured seasonal and multi-year ground movements in a yedoma region of the Lena River Delta, Siberia, in 2013-2017, using reference rods installed deep in the permafrost. The seasonal subsidence was 1.7 ± 1.5 cm in the cold summer of 2013 and 4.8 ± 2 cm in the warm summer of 2014. Furthermore, we measured a pronounced multi-year net subsidence of 9.3 ± 5.7 cm from spring 2013 to the end of summer 2017. Importantly, we observed a high spatial variability of subsidence of up to 6 cm across a sub-meter horizontal scale. In summer 2013, we accompanied our field measurements with Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) on repeat-pass TerraSAR-X (TSX) data from the summer of 2013 to detect summer thaw subsidence over the same study area. Interferometry was strongly affected by a fast phase coherence loss, atmospheric artifacts, and possibly the choice of reference point. A cumulative ground movement map, built from a continuous interferogram stack, did not reveal a subsidence on the upland but showed a distinct subsidence of up to 2 cm in most of the thermokarst basins. There, the spatial pattern of DInSAR-measured subsidence corresponded well with relative surface wetness identified with the near infra-red band of a high-resolution optical image. Our study suggests that (i) although X-band SAR has serious limitations for ground movement monitoring in permafrost landscapes, it can provide valuable information for specific environments like thermokarst basins, and (ii) due to the high sub-pixel spatial variability of ground movements, a validation scheme needs to be developed and implemented for future DInSAR studies in permafrost environments.

Rupture propagation of an earthquake strongly influences potentially destructive ground shaking. Variable rupture behaviour is often caused by complex fault geometries, masking information on fundamental frictional properties. Geometrically smoother ocean transform fault (OTF) plate boundaries offer a favourable environment to study fault zone dynamics because strain is accommodated along a single, wide zone (up to 20 km width) offsetting homogeneous geology comprising altered mafic or ultramafic rocks. However, fault friction during OTF ruptures is unknown: no large (Mw>7.0) ruptures had been captured and imaged in detail. In 2016, we recorded an Mw 7.1 earthquake on the Romanche OTF in the equatorial Atlantic on nearby seafloor seismometers. We show that this rupture had two phases: (1) up and eastwards propagation towards the weaker ridge-transform intersection (RTI), then (2) unusually, back-propagation westwards at super-shear speed toward the fault's centre. Deep slip into weak fault segments facilitated larger moment release on shallow locked zones, highlighting that even ruptures along a single distinct fault zone can be highly dynamic. The possibility of reversing ruptures is absent in rupture simulations and unaccounted for in hazard assessments.

The geometry of the volcanic conduit is a main parameter controlling the dynamics and the style of volcanic eruptions and their precursors, but also one of the main unknowns. Pre-eruptive signals that originate in the upper conduit region include seismicity and deformation of different types and scales. However, the locality of the source of these signals and thus the conduit geometry often remain unconstrained at steep sloped and explosive volcanoes due to the sparse instrumental coverage in the summit region and difficult access. Here we infer the shallow conduit system geometry of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, based on ground displacements detected in high resolution satellite radar data up to 7 h prior to an explosion in January 2013. We use Boundary Element Method modeling to reproduce the data synthetically and constrain the parameters of the deformation source, in combination with an analysis of photographs of the summit. We favor a two-source model, indicative of distinct regions of pressurization at very shallow levels. The horizontal location of the upper pressurization source coincides with that of post-explosive extrusion. The pattern and degree of deformation reverses again during the eruption; we therefore attribute the displacements to transient (elastic) pre-explosive pressurization of the conduit system. Our results highlight the geometrical complexity of shallow conduit systems at explosive volcanoes and its effect on the distribution of pre-eruptive deformation signals. An apparent absence of such signals at many explosive volcanoes may relate to its small temporal and spatial extent, partly controlled by upper conduit structures. Modern satellite radar instruments allow observations at high spatial and temporal resolution that may be the key for detecting and improving our understanding of the generation of precursors at explosive volcanoes.