Cars have a high share of global transport-related CO2 emissions. To model the market diffusion of new energy carriers and powertrains like electric vehicles, fleet turnover models are commonly used. A decisive influence factor for the substitution dynamics of such transformations is the survival rate of the national car fleet of a country. It represents the likelihood of a car reaching a certain lifespan. Due to a lack of data, current methods to estimate such survival probabilities neglect the imports and exports of used cars. Existing studies are limited to countries with a predominant market of new cars, compared to low numbers of imported and exported used cars. In this study, we resolve this marked simplification and propose a new method to estimate survival probabilities for countries with a high number of imported and exported used cars. Empirical data on the car stock, on inflows of new and used cars, and on outflows of exported and scrapped cars are gathered from 71 national statistics offices. Survival rates of the car fleets of 31 European countries are derived, for which we find a pronounced regional variability. Average lifespans of cars vary from 8.0 to 35.1 years, with a mean of 18.1 years in Western and 28.4 years in Eastern European countries, revealing the high impact of cross-border flows of cars. The study also shows that survival rate estimates can be improved significantly even in the absence of reliable data if a combination of a Weibull and a Gaussian distribution is used. It is likely that the predictive power of existing models (regarding the future environmental impact of car fleets) could be improved significantly if these findings were considered accordingly. The findings of this study can directly be included in fleet turnover and policy assessment models. They also enable the analysis of economic and environmental spillover effects from the imports and exports of used cars between countries.

Avoiding irreversible climate change as effectively as possible is one of the most pressing challenges of society. Carbon pricing that is uniformly valid on a global and cross-sectoral basis represents a cost-efficient policy tool to meet this challenge. Carbon pricing allows external costs to be allocated or internalized on a polluter-pays principle. It is shown that a global emissions cap-and-trade system is the most suitable market-based instrument for reducing global emissions levels, in line with the temperature goal set by the Paris Agreement. A proposal for its design is presented in this paper. This instrument encourages worldwide measures, with the lowest marginal abatement cost, according to a pre-defined reduction path. Thereby, it ensures compliance with a specified remaining carbon budget to meet a certain temperature limit in a cost-efficient manner. Possible reduction paths are presented in this paper. Weaknesses in the design of existing emissions trading systems (ETS), such as the EU ETS, are identified and avoided in the proposed instrument. The framework solves several problems of today’s climate change policies, like the free rider problem, carbon leakage, rebound effects or the green paradox. The introduction of a global uniform carbon pricing instrument and its concrete design should be the subject of policy, especially at the United Nations climate change conferences, as soon as possible in order to allow for rapid implementation. If a global ETS with a uniform carbon price could be introduced, additional governmental regulations with regard to carbon emissions would become obsolete.

The decentralized feed-ins from distributed energy resources (DER) represent a significant change in the manner in which the power grid is used. If this leads to high loads on electrical equipment, its aging can be accelerated. This applies in particular with regard to the thermal aging of older generations of power cables, namely paper insulated lead covered (PILC) cables. This type of power cable can still be found frequently in medium voltage (MV) networks. If aging of these cables is significantly accelerated in the presence of DER, distribution system operators (DSO) could face unplanned premature cable failures and a high replacement demand and costs. Therefore, this paper investigates the thermal aging of PILC cables in a MV distribution network benchmark for different load scenarios, using standardized load profiles and representative expansion scenarios for wind power and photovoltaics plants in particularly affected network areas in Germany. A main objective of this paper is to present a methodology for estimating the thermal degradation of PILC cables. An approach is used to draw simplified conclusions from the loading of cables to their conductor or insulation temperature. For this purpose, mainly Joule losses are considered. In addition, thermal time constants are used for the heating and cooling processes. Based on the insulation temperature, thermal aging is determined using the Arrhenius law or the Montsinger rule. However, it is important to note that there is an urgent need for research on reference data in this area. For this reason, the results of the lifetime estimation presented in this paper should only be considered as an approximation if the selected reference data from the literature for the aging model are actually applicable. The lifetime assessment is performed for a highly utilized line segment of the network benchmark. Accordingly, extreme values are examined. Different operational control strategies of DSO to limit cable utilization are investigated. The results show that the expansion of DER can lead to a short but high cable utilization, although the average utilization does not increase or increases only slightly. This can lead to significantly lower cable lifetimes. The possible influence of these temporarily high loads is shown by comparing the resulting cable lifetime with previous situations without DER. It is also shown that DSO could already reduce excessive aging of PILC cables by preventing overloads in a few hours of a year. In addition to these specific results, general findings on the network load due to the influence of DER are obtained, which are of interest for congestion management.

Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.

Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar.