Please cite this article as: Schubert J, Moradi F, Asadi H, Luotsinen L, Sjöberg E, Hörling P, et al. Simulation-based decision support for evaluating operational plans. Operations Research Perspectives (2015), http://dx.

In this paper we describe decision support and simulation techniques to facilitate effects-based planning. By using a decision support tool, a decision maker is able to test a number of feasible plans against possible courses of events and decide which of those plans is capable of achieving the desired military end state. The purpose is to evaluate plans and understand their consequences through simulating the events and producing outcomes which result from making alternative decisions. Plans are described in the effects-based approach to operations concept as a set of effects and activities that together will lead to a desired military end state. For each activity we may have several different alternatives. Together they make up all alternative plans, as an activity tree that may be simulated.Simulated plans that are similar in both their structure and consequence are clustered together by a Potts spin neural clustering method. These plans make up a robust set of similar plans that function as ready alternatives should dynamic replanning be necessary as the situation evolves.Keywords-simulation, decision support, operational planning, effects-based planning, EBP, effects-based approach to operations, EBAO.

In this system oriented paper we describe the architectural framework and information flow model of a stochastic discrete event simulator for evaluating military operational plans. The simulator is tailored for Effect-based Planning where the outcome of a plan is compared with a desired end state. The simulator evaluates several alternative plans and identifies those that are closest to the desired end state. As a test case we use a scenario which has been developed by the Swedish Armed Forces in their Combined Joint Staff Exercises. The scenario is carried out in a fictitious country called Bogaland. The simulator focuses on separation of military scenario data (implemented as an XML-model) and military action logic (implemented as a rule based engine). By separating scenario data from actors' behavior rules the modeling task becomes easier for subject matter experts. The results show that alternative plans can be identified based on efficiency and effectiveness.

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