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A scenario tree model was developed to propose efficient bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) control measures. The model used field data in eastern Hokkaido where the risk of BVDV infection in cattle has been reduced by an eradication program including mass vaccination, individual tests prior to communal pasture grazing, herd screening tests using bulk milk, and outbreak investigations of newly infected herds. These four activities were then used as hypothesized control measures in the simulation. In each simulation, the numbers of cattle infected persistently and transiently with BVDV detected by clinical manifestations and diagnosis tests and of missed by all of the diagnosis tests were calculated, and the numbers were used as indicators to be compared for the efficacy of the control measures. The model outputs indicated that the adoption of mass vaccination decreased the number of missed BVD cattle, although it did not increase the number of detected BVD cattle. Under implementation of mass vaccination, the efficacy of individual tests on selected 20% of the young and adult cattle was equal to that of the herd screening test performed in all the herds. When the virus prevalence or the number of sensitive animals becomes low, the efficacy of herd screening test was superior to one of individual tests. Considering the model outputs together, the scenario tree model developed in the present study was useful to compare the efficacy of the control measures for BVD.

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Bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) is a chronic disease of cattle caused by infection with BVD virus (BVDV) and can result in economic losses within the livestock industry. In Japan, the test and culling policy is a basic control measure, and implementation of an adequate vaccination program is recommended as a national policy. In addition, optional control measures, including compulsory testing of introduced animals and bulk tank milk (BTM) testing as a mass screening method, are used in several provinces, but their efficacy has not been completely assessed. We evaluated these control measures using the scenario tree model of BVD in Japan, developed in the previous study. The model outputs indicated that compulsory testing of all introduced cattle, rather than only heifers and/or non-vaccinated cattle, was cost effective and reduced the risk of BVDV introduction due to animal movement and that BTM testing could effectively monitor most part of the cattle population. Vaccination coverage and BVDV prevalence among introduced cattle could also affect the cost effectiveness of compulsory testing of targeted cattle, particularly under low vaccination coverage or high BVDV prevalence. However, even with the implementation of a highly effective monitoring scheme for many years, BVD risk could not be eliminated; it instead converged at a very low level (0.02%). Disease models with a cost-effective output could be a powerful tool in developing a control scheme for chronic animal diseases, including BVD, with the consent of relevant stakeholders.