Aim: To predict the distribution of suitable environmental conditions (SEC) for eight African great ape taxa for a first time period, the 1990s and then project it to a second time period, the 2000s; to assess the relative importance of factors influencing SEC distribution and to estimate rates of SEC loss, isolation and fragmentation over the last two decades. Location: Twenty-two African great ape range countries. Methods: We extracted 15,051 presence localities collected between 1995 and 2010 from 68 different areas surveyed across the African ape range. We combined a maximum entropy algorithm and logistic regression to relate ape presence information to environmental and human impact variables from the 1990s with a resolution of 5 × 5 km across the entire ape range. We then made SEC projections for the 2000s using updated human impact variables. Results: Total SEC area was approximately 2,015,480 and 1,807,653 km2 in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Loss of predicted SEC appeared highest for Cross River gorillas (-59%), followed by eastern gorillas (-52%), western gorillas (-32%), bonobos (-29%), central chimpanzees (-17%) and western chimpanzees (-11%). SEC for Nigeria-Cameroon chimpanzees and eastern chimpanzees was not greatly reduced. Except for Cross River and eastern gorillas, the number of SEC patches did not change significantly, suggesting that SEC loss was caused mainly by patch size reduction. Main conclusions: The first continent-wide perspective of African ape SEC distribution shows dramatic declines in recent years. The model has clear limitations for use at small geographic scales, given the quality of available data and the coarse resolution of predictions. However, at the large scale it has potential for informing international policymaking, mitigation of resource extraction and infrastructure development, as well as for spatial prioritization of conservation effort and evaluating conservation effectiveness.Additional co-authors: Head, J.,Huijbregts, B., Lindsell, J., McLennan, M., Martinez, L., Morgan, D., N'Goran K.P., Ntongho, A., Petre, C.A., Regnaut, S., Sanz, C., Tondossama, A

Anthrax is a disease of wildlife, livestock and humans predominantly affecting low and 68 middle-income countries 2,4,5 . , suggesting a broad sub-Saharan distribution (Fig. 1) Table S1). 106In TNP we detected Bcbva DNA in 81 carcasses (40%; Fig ( Fig. 2A). We determined Bcbva prevalence within and outside the anthrax invariably led to a clearly reduced survival probability of communities (Fig. 4). 199For example, 76/84 models resulted in extirpation probability higher than 50%, while the 200 model which we consider the most realistic (community size 60, maximum age 46 years 201 and inter birth interval 6 years) resulted in an extirpation probability of 89% (Fig. 4). Our human-borne infectious diseases continues to rise 23,26,27 . 206

The presence of researchers, ecotourists or rangers inside protected areas is generally assumed to provide a protective effect for wildlife populations, mainly by reducing poaching pressure. However, this assumption has rarely been empirically tested. Here, we evaluate and quantify the conservation benefits of the presence of a longterm research area in Taï National Park, Cô te d'Ivoire. A wildlife survey following 225 km of line transects revealed considerably higher primate and duiker encounter rates within the research area when compared with adjacent areas. This positive effect was particularly pronounced for threatened and over-harvested species, such as the endangered red colobus monkey (Procolobus badius). This pattern was clearly mirrored by a reversed gradient in signs of poaching, which decreased towards and inside the research area, a trend that was also supported with park-wide data. This study demonstrates that even relatively simple evidence-based analytical approaches can bridge the gap between conservation theory and practice. In addition, it emphasizes the value of establishing long-term research sites as an integral part of protected area management.

Successful conservation and management of wild animals require reliable estimates of their population size. Ape surveys almost always rely on counts of sleeping nests, as the animals occur at low densities and visibility is low in tropical forests. The reliability of standing-crop nest counts and marked-nest counts, the most widely used methods, has not been tested on populations of known size. Therefore, the answer to the question of which method is more appropriate for surveying chimpanzee population remains problematic and comparisons among sites are difficult. This study aimed to test the validity of these two methods by comparing their estimates to the known population size of three habituated chimpanzee communities in Taï National Park [Boesch et al., Am J Phys Anthropol 130:103-115, 2006; Boesch et al., Am J Primatol 70:519-532, 2008]. In addition to transect surveys, we made observations on nest production rate and nest lifetime. Taï chimpanzees built 1.143 nests per day. The mean nest lifetime of 141 fresh nests was 91.22 days. Estimate precision for the two methods did not differ considerably (difference of coefficient of variation <5%). The estimate of mean nest decay time was more precise (CV=6.46%) when we used covariates (tree species, rainfall, nest height and age) to model nest decay rate, than when we took a simple mean of nest decay times (CV=9.17%). The two survey methods produced point estimates of chimpanzee abundance that were similar and reliable: i.e. for both methods the true chimpanzee abundance was included within the 95% estimate confidence interval. We recommend further research on covariate modeling of nest decay times as one way to improve the precision and to reduce the costs of conducting nest surveys.

A network of resource management areas (RMAs) exists across tropical Africa to protect natural resources. However, many are poorly managed and weakly protected. We evaluated how the lack of conservation effort influences the extinction risk of African great apes. We compiled information on presence/absence of primary (law enforcement guards) and secondary (tourism, research) conservation activities and nongovernmental conservation organizations (NGOs) support for 109 RMAs over the last 20 years. Along with these data, we collected environmental and anthropogenic variables, including recent records of ape presence/absence for all RMAs. As expected, law enforcement as a primary activity was the best predictor of ape survival rather than tourism or research as secondary activities. Furthermore, long-term NGO support had a significant positive influence on ape persistence. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of evaluating the relative importance of different conservation activities, an important step towards more evidence-based approaches in ape conservation. 48Conservation Letters 5 (2012) 48-55