In recent years, shadow banking is considered to be one of the important factors that cause the financial crisis and destroy the stability of the banking system. However, in fact, macroeconomic fluctuation is closely related to the stability of the banking system. As an indispensable part of the decision-making of shadow banking, the shock of macroeconomic fluctuation plays a vital role as well. Therefore, based on the agent-based method in modern complex network theory, a model of a dynamic complex interbank network with shadow banking under macroeconomic fluctuation is proposed in this paper, in which the shock of macroeconomic fluctuation on the stability of the banking system with shadow banking and the effect of the shadow banking on the macroeconomic fluctuation are explored. The results show that in the boom, the liquidity of the banking system is expanded, the average bank profits are improved, the investment opportunities are increased, the survival bank ratio is high, and the systemic risk is low. The banking system stability is increased. While in the stable and the bust, the liquidity of the banking system is declined, average bank profits are shrunk, investment opportunities are gradually disappeared, and the survival bank ratio is decreased. Shadow banking starts to collapse, the systemic risk breaks out, and the banking system stability is seriously damaged. Furthermore, by analyzing the influence of shadow banking on the macroeconomic fluctuation, we find that shadow banking builds up the fragility of macroeconomic performance, and without external regulation, this impact is irreversible. This paper sheds light on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuation on the stability of the banking system with shadow banking, shows the risk problems brought by shadow banking for economic fluctuation, refines research of the banking system stability, and offers effective theoretical references for decision-makers and regulators.

With the rapid development of the financial market, the outbreak of systemic risk is affected by many factors, among which shadow banking is considered to be the essential reason to cause financial crisis and destroy the stability of the banking system. In view of the stability of the banking system, considering shadow banking, interbank lending, and complex relationships between banks, a dynamic complex interbank network model with shadow banking under different network structures is proposed. Based on the model, the effects of ROI, investment periods, average deposit, deposit interest rate, the density of shadow banks, and asset loss are studied quantitatively, and the sensitivity and difference of the banking system with shadow banking under different interbank networks are compared and analyzed. The findings indicate that the spread of systemic risks between banks is closely related to the interbank network structures. With the relatively concentrated interbank network structure, it is easier to increase the probability and degree of risk contagion. Under the random, small-world, and scale-free networks, the random network has the strongest ability to resist and absorb risks, while the small-world network is the weakest. However, once the banking network suffers a big shock, excessive risk will directly break through the protection of the banking network, detonate the systematic risk, and destroy the stability of the banking system with shadow banking. This study contributes to a future empirical research agenda on the topic. Moreover, it gives a reference for policymakers and regulatory authorities to prevent systemic risk introduced by shadow banking.

After the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008, many scholars believed that the unstable transmission of shadow banking business in the banking system is the main factor causing financial turmoil. This paper proposes a dynamic complex interbank network system model with shadow banking in which the dynamic complex interbank network system differs from the traditional banking network and is formed by the interrelated business between shadow banks and commercial banks to explore the effect of shadow banking on the systemic risk. The results show that the existence of shadow banking will increase the systemic risk, accelerate the speed of bankruptcy of banks, reduce the survival ratio of banks, and increase the strength of central bank assistance. The smaller the number of shadow banks in the system, the higher the degree of credit connection among commercial banks and the smaller the systemic risk.

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