In December 2019, the first confirmed case of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus was reported. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently spreading around the world. The relationships among the pandemic and its associated travel restrictions, social distancing measures, contact tracing, mask-wearing habits and medical consultation efficiency have not yet been extensively assessed. Based on the epidemic data reported by the Health Commission of Wenzhou, we analysed the developmental characteristics of the epidemic and modified the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model in three discrete ways. (1) According to the implemented preventive measures, the epidemic was divided into three stages: initial, outbreak and controlled. (2) We added many factors, such as health protections, travel restrictions and social distancing, close-contact tracing and the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (TSOH), to the model. (3) Exposed and infected people were subdivided into isolated and free-moving populations. For the parameter estimation of the model, the average TSOH and daily cured cases, deaths and imported cases can be obtained through individual data from epidemiological investigations. The changes in daily contacts are simulated using the intracity travel intensity (ICTI) from the Baidu Migration Big Data platform. The optimal values of the remaining parameters are calculated by the grid search method. With this model, we calculated the sensitivity of the control measures with regard to the prevention of the spread of the epidemic by simulating the number of infected people in various hypothetical situations. Simultaneously, through a simulation of a second epidemic, the challenges from the rebound of the epidemic were analysed, and prevention and control recommendations were made. The results show that the modified SEIR model can effectively simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Wenzhou. The policy of the lockdown of Wuhan, the launch of the first-level Public Health Emergency Preparedness measures on 23 January 2020 and the implementation of resident travel control measures on 31 January 2020 were crucial to COVID-19 control.
Transportation is an important resource for the sustainable development of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It is of great practical significance to evaluate and study the law and mechanism of spatial and temporal differentiation of traffic dominance degree. Based on the methods of the Origin-Destination cost matrix, least squares method, and geographically weighted regression, this paper establishes a traffic dominance evaluation system at the county scale and discusses the spatial pattern and influence of traffic dominance in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 2015 to 2019. The results show that: (1) The overall traffic construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been accelerated, and the traffic accessibility between counties has been significantly enhanced; (2) The traffic dominance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is significantly different from east to west, and the central area, with “Xining-Lhasa” as the axis, expands to the outer circle with an irregularly decreasing spatial pattern; and (3) The effect of rapid urbanization development and population carrying capacity enhancement on the traffic dominance of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has gradually increased, and the effect of elevation has been weakening from 2015 to 2019.
The highway is an important mode of transportation in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and can be regarded as a major contributor to the high-quality and sustainable development of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. It is of great significance to explore its spatial distribution and characteristics for understanding the regional and geographical process. Although Qinghai–Tibet Plateau’s highway transportation infrastructure has been experiencing rapid development in recent years, there lacks a systematic examination of the whole Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from the perspective of supportive capacity for its socio-economic activities. This paper applies geospatial analysis methods, such as network analysis, spatial statistics, and weighted overlay, to model the highway transport dominance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in 2015 at the county scale and reveals the basic characteristics of the highway transport dominance’s spatial pattern. The results are mainly of four aspects: 1) there is a significant difference between the east and west of the highway in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, showing an irregular circle structure of gradual attenuation from the east to west; 2) at the county scale, the highway transport dominance in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau shows strong spatial autocorrelation and a certain extent of spatial heterogeneity, presenting a spatial distribution pattern of High–High and Low–Low clustering; 3) the urban locations of Lhasa, Xining and other center cities have obvious spatial constraints on the distribution of highway transport dominance and generally have a logarithmic decline trend; and 4) there are obvious differences in distribution among the three Urban Agglomerations in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Due to the influence of traffic location, topography, construction of national trunk lines, and level of socio-economic development., the traffic conditions of Lan-Xi Urban Agglomeration and Lhasa Urban Agglomeration are better than Kashgar Urban Agglomeration. This study can be used to guide the optimization of the highway network structure and provide a macro decision-making reference for the planning and evaluation of major highway projects in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.
Since the emergence of COVID-19, there have been many local outbreaks with foci at shopping malls in China. We compared and analyzed the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of local COVID-19 outbreaks in two commercial locations, a department store building (DSB) in Baodi District, Tianjin, and the Xinfadi wholesale market (XFD) in Fengtai District, Beijing. The spread of the infection at different times was analyzed by the standard deviation elliptical method. The spatial transfer mode demonstrated that outbreaks started at the center of each commercial location and spread to the periphery. The number of cases and the distance from the central outbreak showed an inverse proportional logarithmic function shape. Most cases were distributed within a 10 km radius; infected individuals who lived far from the outbreak center were mainly infected by close-contact transmission at home or in the workplace. There was no efficient and rapid detection method at the time of the DSB outbreak; the main preventative measure was the timing of COVID-19 precautions. Emergency interventions (closing shopping malls and home isolation) were initiated five days before confirmation of the first case from the shopping center. In contrast, XFD closed after the first confirmed cases appeared, but those infected during this outbreak benefitted from efficient nucleic acid testing. Quick results and isolation of infected individuals were the main methods of epidemic control in this area. The difference in the COVID-19 epidemic patterns between the two shopping malls reflects the progress of Chinese technology in the prevention and control of COVID-19.
As the core element of social-economic development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, transportation dramatically shapes the scale, type, and intensity of human activities. First, this study utilizes night light data and kilometer-grid population data to construct night light development index (NLDI) and to evaluate the human development level at the county scale. Then, based on the complex transportation infrastructure data, the weight assignment method is adopted to create transportation infrastructure influence degree (TIID), which is used to evaluate the location conditions of the counties. Finally, bivariate spatial autocorrelation is utilized to analyze the effect of regional conditions on the county-level human development variation. The results show that (1) NLDI is verified to assess differences in the level of human development among counties in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and to overcome the difficulties of systematically and integrally obtaining socio-economic statistical data. The pattern of human development level in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau presents a “core-periphery” spatial structure with the transportation network as the axis. (2) On the whole, with the improvement of location conditions influenced by transportation infrastructure, the spatial aggregation of human development level is constantly improving, and the spatial disparity continues to decrease. (3) Locally, four spatial interaction patterns of high/low clustering are recognized and analyzed. It reflects the complexity and spatial heterogeneity between transport infrastructure construction and human development level in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
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