The development of nature-based tourism is one of the most critical sectors of tourism, which is influenced by various economic, socio-cultural, and environmental factors. The COVID-19 pandemic has influenced all sectors of tourism, including nature-based tourism. The purpose of this article is to identify the key drivers affecting the development of nature-based tourism and analyze future scenarios of nature-based tourism in Iran based on the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Micmac and ScenarioWizard software programs were used to analyze the research findings. Many factors affect the development of nature-based tourism in Iran, which fall into two human and natural factors groups. Five factors are the key drivers influencing the development of nature-based tourism in Iran: national, regional and globaly safety (F2); economic stability (F8); private sector participation (F9), human crises such as diseases, wars, etc. (F16); national and international advertising (national and international (F17); and travel costs (F19). According to the future of the COVID-19 pandemic, the research results show that a total of 10 scenarios for the future of nature-based tourism in Iran are conceivable, which are presented in three groups.

From the mid-1990s onwards, the concept of competitiveness was introduced to firms at the level of countries, regions, and cities. It was used as an index of the success and superiority of places. The present study used quantitative (survey) and qualitative methods in the framework of the exploratory paradigm to achieve key driving variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah. The present study was applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive–analytical nature and research method. The study’s statistical population consisted of experts related to the Kermanshah competitiveness index, which studied 30 experts using the snowball method. MICMAC software was used to analyze the research data. Findings indicated that out of a total of 54 variables affecting the competitiveness of Kermanshah, 11 variables were in this group, which were the role of Kermanshah city in the power structure (MIN1); geographical and strategic location (MIN4); national, regional, and local plans (MIN5); management (MIN6); clean and healthy air (ENV1); potential sources of soil and water (ENV2); security of space (SEC2); the agricultural sector (ECO7); domestic tourism (ECO16); foreign tourism (ECO17); and sustainable sources of income (ECO19). The final model of Kermanshah’s future competitiveness will be that in the first stage, if the government (administration and government structure), in the form of national, regional, and local programs, pays attention to the competitive advantages of places. Especially, in large cities, and eliminating regional inequalities and in the next stage, local government (officials, managers, and all planners as the executive department) will need to act in order to operationalize the competitiveness of the city. With the correct use of opportunities and potentials (economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and security), in the 20-year horizon, Kermanshah will be a city with national and even transnational competitiveness. Otherwise, in addition to burning opportunities and destroying the capabilities of Kermanshah, other places adjacent to Kermanshah province will gradually be involved in challenges; tensions; and economic, cultural, social, environmental, security, and other crises.

The terms of competitiveness at the level of places and sustainable development were created in the 1980s and 1990s. In the beginning, most researchers emphasized the dimension of economic competitiveness, but in recent decades, other aspects of competitiveness, such as socio-cultural and environmental, have been highlighted. The aim of the present research is evaluation the social­­-cultural competitiveness in the city of Kermanshah based on a sustainable development approach. This research is descriptive and analytical, the TOPSIS model was used for data analysis, and Entropy was used to weight the indicators. After applying the weight of the indicators in the TOPSIS model, The research findings showed that the city of Kermanshah in the TOPSIS model, ranks 15th with a coefficient of 0.209; in the MABAC model, ranks 14th with a coefficient of -0.116 and in the EDAS model, ranks 14th with a coefficient of 0.122579271 is in the last and 14th position of socio-cultural competitiveness. The results showed that; Considering the nature of urban competitiveness, which is multidimensional, it is necessary to avoid a one-sided approach in urban competitiveness planning and to consider the socio-cultural, environmental, and security dimensions of urban competitiveness in an integrated manner. To improve the competitiveness of Iranian cities, while paying attention to the internal competitive advantages of the 15 studied cities, special attention should be paid to the fields of economic, environmental, socio-cultural, and security competitiveness. Each of these cities concerns their competitive role in transnational dimensions. This requires special attention to the national macro-plans.